多空僵持，煤焦高位震荡：煤焦日报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Coke - As of the week ending November 7, the total daily coke production of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1096800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11200 tons. The daily hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2342200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21400 tons. The steel - mill profitability rate continued to decline by 5.19 percentage points to 39.83%, with over 60% of steel mills in a loss state, indicating continued pressure on coke demand. - In terms of inventory, the coke inventory at all links in the industrial chain decreased this week. As of the latest data on November 7, the total coke inventory in the statistical scope was 8870500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 129700 tons. - Overall, due to environmental protection restrictions and operating pressure, the supply and demand of coke are both weak in the off - season, and the fundamentals lack effective support. The upward driving force mainly comes from coking coal on the cost side, supporting the main coke contract to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in coking coal supply [6][36]. Coking Coal - As of the week ending November 7, the daily refined - coal production of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 738000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 47000 tons. The total daily coke production of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1096800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11200 tons. - In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 7, coking coal accumulated in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain and decreased in the lower reaches. The inventory of independent coking plants increased by 175400 tons week - on - week, the port inventory increased by 141200 tons week - on - week, and the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 90200 tons week - on - week. - Overall, the supply and demand of coking coal both decreased, and the fundamentals are neutral. The relative positive factor is the strong supply - side expectation brought by safety supervision and anti - involution. Attention should be paid to the production situation of coal mines in the main producing areas [7][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial News - Heavy - pollution weather orange alert in Henan: Starting from November 10, affected by adverse meteorological conditions, many places in Henan may experience continuous moderately polluted weather. Zhengzhou, Puyang, Jiaozuo, Jiyuan and other cities have launched heavy - pollution weather orange alerts. The poor meteorological conditions are expected to last until the end of the week, and the air quality will improve with the influence of northwest cold air [9]. - Online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ER Company: On November 10, Mongolia's ER Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 3 refined coal (A11, V20 - 28, S0.85, G75, Mt10) was 800 yuan/ton. All 12800 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of 1010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with November 6. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being February 8, 2026 [10]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Same - Period Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1620 yuan | +3.18% | +3.18% | - 4.14% | - 14.29% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1570 yuan | +0.64% | +1.29% | - 3.09% | - 11.30% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1435 yuan | +3.24% | +3.24% | +21.61% | +0.35% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1670 yuan | +0.60% | +0.60% | +12.08% | - 3.47% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1800 yuan | +3.45% | +3.45% | +17.65% | +5.88% | [11] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open - Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1743.5 | - 1.19 | 1773.0 | 1731.0 | 21122 | 3924 | 37267 | - 162 | | Coking Coal | | 1265.5 | - 1.02 | 1276.0 | 1247.0 | 835521 | 5573 | 626571 | - 11859 | [15] Related Charts - Coke Inventory: The report provides charts of coke inventory in 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke total inventory, and total coke inventory [16][17][18][20]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The report provides charts of coking coal inventory at mine mouths, in ports, and in 247 sample steel mills, as well as the coking - coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants [22][25][27][33]. - Other Charts: The report also includes charts of domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [29][30][34]. Market Outlook - Coke: The supply and demand of coke are both weak in the off - season, and the fundamentals lack effective support. The upward driving force mainly comes from coking coal on the cost side, supporting the main coke contract to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in coking coal supply. - Coking Coal: The supply and demand of coking coal both decreased, and the fundamentals are neutral. The relative positive factor is the strong supply - side expectation brought by safety supervision and anti - involution. Attention should be paid to the production situation of coal mines in the main producing areas [36][37].