显微镜下的中国经济（2025年第42期）：年内宏观数据可能的动向

Economic Trends - Industrial production is expected to slow down, with recent supply-side indicators showing signs of weakening, particularly in capacity utilization rates which have declined across various sectors[1] - October's industrial added value growth rate is likely to decelerate, correlating with a drop in exports and port cargo throughput[1] Price Dynamics - October inflation data exceeded expectations, with CPI turning positive year-on-year and PPI showing its first positive growth of the year, indicating a stabilization in prices[1] - However, CPI is expected to remain low due to a significant year-on-year decline in pork prices, which have dropped over 25%[1] Investment and Consumption - Investment demand remains weak, with real estate sales data returning to levels seen before last year's peak, suggesting further slowdown in real estate investment growth[1] - Despite weak investment, consumer spending shows potential for improvement, driven by seasonal increases in service and food prices, alongside e-commerce promotions and consumption subsidies[1] Risks and Challenges - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[1]