Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.26%, volume increased and positions decreased. Currently, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is that the cost still provides support. In the short - term, the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coils oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.06%, volume and positions decreased. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot - rolled coils remain unresolved, inventory has accumulated again, and prices continue to be under pressure. The cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the trend will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decrease of 0.07%, volume and positions decreased. Currently, market sentiment has warmed up, and ore prices have stabilized in oscillation. However, the demand for ore is declining, and the supply pressure has not been alleviated. The fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that ore prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Pay attention to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In October 2025, 822 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 494.812 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Fujian, Guangxi, and Guangdong, with total investments of 136.944 billion yuan, 82.1 billion yuan, and 71.7 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of November 10, 18 car companies announced their production and sales data for October. SAIC Group ranked first in production with 466,300 vehicles, and BYD ranked second with 429,800 vehicles. In terms of month - on - month growth, 11 car companies' sales increased, with BAIC BluePark having the largest increase of 48.70%. In terms of year - on - year growth, 14 car companies' sales increased. Qianli Technology had the highest increase of 97.97%, followed by BAIC BluePark with 72.69%, and Ankai Bus with 65.99% [8]. - Vice - Premier Liu Guozhong will visit Guinea and Sierra Leone from November 10 to 16 and attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project as a special representative of President Xi Jinping on November 11 [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160, 3,200, and 3,223 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 2. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,190, and 3,307 respectively, with changes of 10, 0, and - 3. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 with a change of - 10, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 with a change of - 20. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 110 with a change of 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 with a change of 20 [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 775 with a change of 4, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 with a change of - 5. The sea freight from Australia was 10.45 with a change of 0.24, and from Brazil was 23.53 with a change of 0.16. The SGX swap price (current month) was 102.59 with a change of - 2.22, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 102.05 with a change of - 2.65 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,044, with a change of 0.26%, the highest price was 3,050, the lowest price was 3,022, the trading volume was 1,049,513 with a volume difference of 248,567, and the open interest was 1,923,733 with a position difference of - 37,153 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,252, with a change of 0.06%, the highest price was 3,256, the lowest price was 3,231, the trading volume was 375,365 with a volume difference of - 19,759, and the open interest was 1,346,071 with a position difference of - 19,517 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 765.0, with a change of - 0.07%, the highest price was 767.0, the lowest price was 756.0, the trading volume was 327,443 with a volume difference of - 103,913, and the open interest was 541,602 with a position difference of - 17,806 [12]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situations (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [14][19][27] Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 40,500 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 136,600 tons. The fundamentals have not improved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The cost still provides support. In the short - term, the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [36]. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 54,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 175,900 tons. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory has accumulated again, and prices continue to be under pressure. The cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the trend will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [36]. - For iron ore, the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand continues to decline, and the supply pressure has not been alleviated. Market sentiment has warmed up, and ore prices have stabilized in oscillation, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that ore prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Pay attention to the performance of steel products [37].
市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡企稳：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251110
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-10 11:24