股指期货：基本面释出积极信号，但市场避险情绪仍存

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Weekend economic data showed exports turned negative year-on-year due to holidays, high base effects, and a temporary decline in external demand. In terms of price data, CPI turned positive year-on-year, core CPI rebounded, service consumption contribution increased, and the year-on-year drag of food CPI eased, reflecting marginal repair of domestic consumption demand. PPI continued to rise year-on-year, and the decline narrowed further compared to September, mainly due to the continuous rise in upstream industry prices, indicating initial results of anti-involution policies, waiting for price transmission to spread downstream. Positive price data boosted market confidence in economic repair, leading to gains in large consumption sectors such as liquor, beauty care, and retail, and the index was generally strong with increased volume. However, the basis of stock index futures deepened for all contracts except IH, and the dividend index led the gains, indicating that market sentiment had not fully improved and remained cautious. This week, financial data, industrial added value, and social retail data will be released to further verify the economic repair situation. In addition, the concentrated issuance of US Treasury bonds overseas this week will test market liquidity, and overseas market fluctuations may affect the risk appetite of the A-share market. However, the support below is relatively stable based on policy expectations, and it is expected that the stock index will remain in a volatile pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index fluctuated strongly. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 0.35%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 1.75401 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM rose with reduced volume, while the other varieties rose with increased volume [3]. Important Information - Trump said the government shutdown was nearing an end. - China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year-on-year in October, and imports increased by 1.0% year-on-year. - China's CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year in October, and PPI decreased 2.1% year-on-year [4]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5]. Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0.07 | 0.13 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.6785 | 4.591 | 12.2736 | 19.4473 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 2.0335 | 0.8106 | 1.5775 | 0.6856 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.8313 | 9.6711 | 24.9333 | 35.4677 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.0827 | 0.5768 | 0.8841 | -0.1747 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.53 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.18 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.73 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21744.54 | | Trading volume MoM (100 million yuan) | 1754.01 | [6]