尿素周报：出口配额落地，行情回归基本面-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, urea prices rebounded from a low level. The export quota and Indian tender boosted the market, but after the news was digested, the market is expected to return to fundamentals. High production, high inventory, and weak domestic demand will limit price increases, while cost support from the downstream will keep prices fluctuating within a narrow range [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, affected by the fourth batch of export quotas and a new round of Indian tender, the spot and futures markets rose in tandem, and upstream factories had smooth sales. Since the weekend, urea quotes have continued to rise, but high - price transactions were insufficient [3]. 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed various trends each day. As of November 10, the main January contract was at 1,660 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from November 3. Weekly trading volume was 1,852.03 million tons, up 628.84 million tons week - on - week; open interest was 748.91 million tons, up 63.88 million tons week - on - week. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. As of November 10, the 01 contract basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week. On November 10, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,585, up 3,130 week - on - week [5][8]. 3.3 Urea Supply - From October 30 to November 5, urea weekly output was 1.3545 million tons, up 39,200 tons (2.98%) from the previous period, with an average daily output of 193,500 tons. Coal - based output was 1.0754 million tons, up 3.69%, and gas - based output was 279,200 tons, up 0.36%. Small - particle output was 107,640 tons, up 3.14%, and large - particle output was 278,100 tons, up 2.36%. On November 10, the national daily urea output was 202,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 85.35%. Next period, production is expected to increase. Coal prices rose this week, while LNG prices decreased by 1.38% week - on - week. The synthetic ammonia price center moved down, and the methanol price also fell [11][13][14]. 3.4 Urea Demand - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat. As of November 7, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was quoted at 2,900 yuan/ton. The wheat fertilizer in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions is coming to an end, and the new winter storage policy is not clear. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate is steadily increasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. From November 1 to 7, the compound fertilizer operating rate was 31.04%, unchanged from the previous week but 2.4 percentage points higher year - on - year. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 53.2%, up 3.22 percentage points from the previous period but 7.92 percentage points lower year - on - year. As of November 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, up 23,800 tons (1.53%) from the previous week and 215,000 tons higher year - on - year. The port sample inventory was 79,000 tons, down 31,000 tons from the previous week [16][18]. 3.5 International Market - On November 6, China issued a 600,000 - ton urea export quota. India's IPL launched a new round of urea import tenders, targeting 2.5 million tons. As of November 7, small - particle FOB prices in China were up 7.5 dollars/ton week - on - week, while prices in some other regions had different changes. Large - particle FOB prices in China were up 2.5 dollars/ton week - on - week, and prices in other regions also showed various trends [20][22].