Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-10 11:47Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with common shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. But the supply of soybean oil is abundant and has a good substitution advantage, so the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for essential needs. The rapeseed oil futures price has recovered from the low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The latest price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9587 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; the latest price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2527 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 413 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 99 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. - The positions of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased by 1514 hands and 12225 hands respectively. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 701 hands, while that of rapeseed meal increased by 4068 hands [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 926 to 4098, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2745 [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 638.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9830 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9947.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7886.06 yuan/ton, up 108.76 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.8, up 0.02 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 243 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 3 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1390 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 716 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 1 million tons, down 1 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, down 1.6 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 3.8 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 0.5 million tons, down 0.21 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.41%, down 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.42%, down 1.15 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.7%, down 1.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 26.88%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.2%, down 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.24%, down 1.09 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.67%, down 1.27 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.4%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On November 7 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by speculative positions before the weekend. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 6.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 640 Canadian dollars per ton, up about 0.5% for the week [2]. - As of the week ending November 2, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 21.2% to 18.84 million tons compared with the previous week. From August 1 to November 2, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 142.33 million tons, a decrease of 54.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [2][3]. - China has agreed to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and at least 25 million tons per year in the next three years. The optimistic sentiment in the US soybean trade has boosted the US soybean futures price, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market. Recently, the rise of US soybean futures has slowed down [2]. Key Points of Attention - The rapeseed oil - meal inventory in each region and the rapeseed oil - meal operating rate released by Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [3]