华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall Viewpoint: The black industry is facing a complex situation with different trends in various sub - sectors.成材 is expected to run at a low level, coal - coke prices need to pay attention to the previous high pressure, and ferroalloys are predicted to have a narrow - range shock and consolidation trend [12][13][14][15]. - Specific Sub - sector Views - 成材：回归基本面逻辑，低位运行，后期需关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [12][13]. - Coal - Coke：Short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, supporting the market's confidence in maintaining prices, but demand is in a downward trend. Pay attention to the steel - mill profit situation and production reduction actions [14]. - Ferroalloys：Recently, the macro - driving force has weakened. The market trading logic is dominated by the weak reality. The supply - demand contradiction in the alloy market is accumulating, and prices are under pressure but supported by costs, with a narrow - range shock expected [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 周度行情回顾 - Futures and Spot Prices - 螺纹钢：The futures price of RB2601 dropped from 3106 to 3034, a decrease of 2.32%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3230 to 3190, a decrease of 1.24% [8]. - 热轧卷板：The futures price of HC2601 dropped from 3308 to 3245, a decrease of 1.90%, and the spot price of Q235B:5.751500C in Shanghai decreased from 3330 to 3260, a decrease of 2.10% [8]. - 铁矿石：The futures price of 12601 dropped from 800 to 760.5, a decrease of 4.94%, and the spot price of Rizhao Port PB powder decreased from 803 to 773, a decrease of 3.74% [8]. - 焦炭：The futures price of J2601 dropped from 1777 to 1756.5, a decrease of 1.15%, and the spot price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price increased from 1560 to 1570, an increase of 0.64% [8]. - 焦煤：The futures price of JM2601 dropped from 1286 to 1270, a decrease of 1.24%, and the spot price of Jiexiu medium - sulfur main coking coal ex - factory price increased from 1350 to 1420, an increase of 5.19% [8]. - 锰硅：The futures price of SM2601 dropped from 5772 to 5760, a decrease of 0.21%, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5660 to 5620, a decrease of 0.71% [8]. - 硅铁：The futures price of SF2601 increased from 5500 to 5526, an increase of 0.47%, and the spot price of 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5250 to 5220, a decrease of 0.57% [8]. - 废钢：The Mysteel scrap steel price index decreased from 2442.24 to 2438.17, a decrease of 0.17% [8]. 3.2 02 本周黑色行情预判 - 成材 - Logic：Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 5.19% to 39.83%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38% to 83.13%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% to 87.81%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.14 tons to 234.22 tons. The impact of steel - mill maintenance on construction steel production increased. After the macro - level positive factors faded, steel prices returned to the fundamental logic, with weak downstream demand and high inventory pressuring prices [13]. - Viewpoint：Run at a low level [13]. - Later Concerns：Macro - policies and downstream demand [13]. - Coal - Coke - Logic：Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated with a slightly lower center of gravity. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the third round of coke price increases was implemented, with some areas starting the fourth round. Shanxi coal mines further reduced production, and the demand was also declining as steel - mill profits continued to shrink [14]. - Viewpoint：Pay attention to the previous high pressure of coal - coke prices [14]. - Later Concerns：The resumption process of coal - coke - steel production and changes in imported coal clearance [14]. - Ferroalloys - Logic：The macro - situation has an impact, with the US government shutdown and China's policy window period. The demand in the off - season is weakening. On the supply side, the production and operating rates of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises have different trends; on the demand side, the demand from steel mills is decreasing; on the inventory side, the inventory of both is increasing; on the cost side, there is some support [15]. - Viewpoint：Prices are expected to have a narrow - range shock and consolidation trend [15]. - Later Concerns：Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profits and production, and domestic production - restriction situations [15]. 3.3 03 品种数据 3.3.1 成材 - 螺纹钢 - Production and Apparent Demand：Last week, the production was 208.54 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons compared to the previous week; the apparent demand was 218.52 tons, a decrease of 13.67 tons compared to the previous week [18]. - Long - and Short - Process Production：The long - process production was 179.29 tons, a decrease of 3.79 tons compared to the previous week; the short - process production was 29.25 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons compared to the previous week [24]. - Inventory：The social inventory was 425.70 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons compared to the previous week; the steel - mill inventory was 166.84 tons, a decrease of 4.87 tons compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 592.54 tons, a decrease of 9.98 tons compared to the previous week [28]. - Basis：In Shanghai, the basis for January was 156 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 32 yuan compared to the previous week; in Beijing, the basis for January was 236 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 72 yuan compared to the previous week [44][47]. - 热轧 - Production and Apparent Demand：Last week, the production was 318.16 tons, a decrease of 5.40 tons compared to the previous week; the apparent demand was 314.30 tons, a decrease of 17.59 tons compared to the previous week [35]. - Inventory：The social inventory was 333.02 tons, an increase of 4.09 tons compared to the previous week; the steel - mill inventory was 77.43 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 410.45 tons, an increase of 3.86 tons compared to the previous week [40]. - Basis：In Shanghai, the basis for January was 15 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 7 yuan compared to the previous week [51]. 3.3.2 煤焦 - Inventory - Coke：The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 887.01 tons last week, a decrease of 13.09 tons compared to the previous week [60]. - Coking Coal：The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2622.17 tons last week, an increase of 34.32 tons compared to the previous week [68]. - Production and Related Data - Coke：The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises was - 22 yuan last week, an increase of 10 yuan compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 72.3%, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous week; the daily average coke production was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton compared to the previous week [76]. - Coking Coal：The daily average clean - coal production of 523 coking coal mines was 73.8 tons last week, a decrease of 2.0 tons compared to the previous week; the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to the previous week [77]. - Price Ratios and Basis - Price Ratios：The ratio of coke January to coking coal January was 1.38 last Friday, unchanged compared to the previous week [82]. - Basis：For the basis of coke in Rizhao Port, the basis for January was - 68 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 31 yuan compared to the previous week [86]. 3.3.3 铁合金 - Spot Prices - Manganese Ore：The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36%, South African origin) in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry - ton degree last Friday, unchanged compared to the previous week [99]. - Silicon - Manganese：The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5620 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 40 yuan compared to the previous week [99]. - Silicon - Iron：The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous week [99]. - Inventory - Manganese Ore：The total port inventory in the week of October 31 was 431.4 tons, a decrease of 11.3 tons compared to the previous week [102]. - Silicon - Manganese：The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises on November 7 was 319500 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week [116]. - Silicon - Iron：The inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises on November 7 was 78690 tons, an increase of 6700 tons compared to the previous week [116]. - Production - Silicon - Manganese：The weekly production of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises last week was 201880 tons, a decrease of 5845 tons compared to the previous week [104]. - Silicon - Iron：The weekly production of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises last week was 11.41 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons compared to the previous week [107]. - Demand - Silicon - Manganese：The demand from five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a decrease of 3379 tons compared to the previous week [112]. - Silicon - Iron：The demand from five major steel types last week was 19813.7 tons, a decrease of 462 tons compared to the previous week [112]. - Import and Production - Manganese Ore：The import volume in September was 308.49 tons, a decrease of 11.51% compared to the previous month [122]. - Silicon - Manganese：The production in October was 91.57 tons, an increase of 1.92% compared to the previous month [122]. - Silicon - Iron：The production in October was 50.53 tons, an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous month [122]. - Steel - Mill Purchase Prices - Silicon - Manganese：Hebei Iron and Steel's purchase price for silicon - manganese 6517 in October was 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to the previous month [125]. - Silicon - Iron：Hebei Iron and Steel's purchase price for silicon - iron FeSi75 - B in October was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan compared to the previous month [125].