避险情绪减弱，贵金属中期或分化

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in Busan, the contradiction in the Sino-US trade field has been paused, and the economic risk aversion sentiment has slightly eased. The mid-term trends of gold and silver may diverge, with gold potentially oscillating at a high level and silver possibly having a catch-up rally [2][9][26] - The US government is still in a shutdown, making it difficult to obtain the latest economic data. The Fed's disagreement on a December interest rate cut has increased, adding uncertainty to the future interest rate cut rhythm and bringing volatility factors to the precious metal market [3][14] - The offshore RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. Although the RMB has recently faced increased depreciation pressure, the trend of moderate appreciation remains unchanged. Currently, the exchange rate issue has not had a significant impact on the gold market [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, trade negotiations have slightly eased, and risk aversion sentiment has weakened. The market is currently pricing in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Gold and silver may rise again under the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts, but whether their trends will diverge needs continuous attention [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US government shutdown has a greater-than-expected impact on the US economy, causing long-term damage to the government's efficient operation and slowing down Q4 GDP growth. The tourism and leisure industry is being hit hard [12] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of multiple export control measures from now until November 10, 2026, and the resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US enterprises and the import of US logs starting from November 10 [12] - Some Fed officials are worried about further interest rate cuts due to high inflation levels and the lack of key price data caused by the government shutdown [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - Due to the US government shutdown, it is difficult to track the US economy. The preliminary values of the US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in October all rebounded from September and were better than expected. The market has fully priced in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed for the rest of the year [15] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese and US leaders held a meeting, and both sides reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues. The EU listed Chinese enterprises in its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and China urged the EU to stop this action [18] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US manufacturing, service, and composite PMIs in October all rebounded and were better than expected. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. Crude oil prices rebounded, and copper prices rose due to supply shortages and Fed interest rate cut expectations [19] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index passively. The long-term weakening trend of the US dollar supports precious metals. The RMB is in a slow appreciation trend, and its impact on the gold market is limited [23] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the Sino-US trade conflict has been paused, and risk aversion sentiment has eased. After COMEX gold reached a high of 4398, precious metals have corrected significantly. In the mid-term, the trends of gold and silver may diverge, with gold potentially oscillating at a high level and silver possibly having a catch-up rally [26]