银河期货油脂日报-20251110

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Galaxy Futures Oil Daily Report, November 10, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Agricultural Product R & D Report [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - After a significant decline, the oil market has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, palm oil lacks obvious short - term drivers, with limited expected upward space [5][10]. - Soybean oil is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to sufficient short - term supply and a lack of obvious drivers [6]. - Rapeseed oil's fundamentals have not changed much, but the continuous marginal reduction of inventory supports its price [8]. Group 4: Data Analysis Spot Price and Basis - Soybean Oil: The 2601 closing price was 8228, up 44. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8488, 8528, and 8398 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin was 300, 260, and 170 respectively, with no change [3]. - Palm Oil: The 2601 closing price was 8690, up 30. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8590, 8710, and 8790 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin was - 100, 20, and 100 respectively, with no change [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The 2601 closing price was 9587, up 54. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9937, 10087 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong was 350 and 500 respectively, with no change [3]. Monthly Spread - Soybean Oil: The 1 - 5 monthly spread was 230, up 6 [3]. - Palm Oil: The 1 - 5 monthly spread was - 102, down 32 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: The 1 - 5 monthly spread was 413, up 8 [3]. Cross - Variety Spread - The Y - P 01 spread was - 462, up 14; the OI - Y 01 spread was 1359, up 10; the OI - P 01 spread was 897, up 24; the oil - meal ratio was 2.69, up 0.01 [3]. Import Profit - The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was 1040 (shipment in December), with a disk profit of - 187. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam (shipment in December) was 1085, with a disk profit of - 1169 [3]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (Week 44, 2025, in 10,000 tons) - Soybean Oil: This week's inventory was 121.6, last week's was 125.0, and the same period last year was 110.1 [3]. - Palm Oil: This week's inventory was 59.3, last week's was 60.7, and the same period last year was 53.9 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: This week's inventory was 51.4, last week's was 53.5, and the same period last year was 41.8 [3]. Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Malaysia's palm oil production in October 2025 was 2,043,886 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.02%. The inventory was 2,464,452 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.44% [5]. Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of November 7, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 59.73 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.45 tons (0.76%). It is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to about - 200, and the basis is stable [5]. - Soybean Oil: As of November 7, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 115.72 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.86 tons (4.82%). It is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. The basis is stable. With the decrease in soybean arrivals and the decline in soybean crushing, the inventory may slightly decrease, but overall supply is still sufficient [6]. - Rapeseed Oil: As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 51.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 tons. It is at a high level in the same period of history, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to about - 1100. The domestic basis is stable and strong, and the coastal de - stocking trend is expected to continue [8]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Single - Side Strategy: For palm oil, consider buying on dips or continue to wait and see due to limited upward space and lack of obvious drivers [10]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Wait and see [11]. - Option Strategy: Wait and see [12]