螺纹热卷日报-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today, with differentiation among varieties. Finished products were stronger than raw materials. The overall spot trading volume of steel was average but improved compared to last Friday. - Last week, blast furnaces in North China continued to cut production, leading to an overall decline in steel output. However, electric arc furnaces have recently shifted to increased production, and it is expected that the supply of rebar will continue to grow. - Last week, rebar inventories continued to decline, but hot - rolled coil inventories increased overall. The apparent demand for all steel products declined, and the supply - demand structure suppressed steel prices. - Recently, the rapid reduction in hot metal production squeezed raw materials, causing the center of steel prices to move down. In the fourth quarter, the release of funds slowed down, downstream payment collection was slow, and the number of projects decreased year - on - year. The impact of macro factors gradually subsided, and there was still pressure above. However, in November, the supply of coking coal tightened due to environmental protection, providing support below. - In the short term, steel prices will generally fluctuate within a range, and more factors are needed to break the situation. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot Prices: The net price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3160 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar was 3180 yuan (unchanged), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3270 yuan (+10), and Tianjin HBIS hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan (unchanged). [4] Market Research and Judgment - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound and volatile trend. [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the long position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - Important Information - In October, the national infrastructure winning bid amount was 475.4 billion yuan, a 32.62% decrease from September and a 22.00% decrease from the same period last year. The cumulative year - on - year decrease from January to October was 7.18%. - In October 2025, the national ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The month - on - month change turned from flat to a 0.1% increase. The purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month increase was 0.1%, the same as the previous month. From January to October, the average ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, and the purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.2%. [9] Relevant Attached Figures The report provides multiple figures related to the black metal industry, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts from 2021 to 2026. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. [13][17][20]