粕类日报：美豆出口前景好转，盘面继续偏强运行-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply and demand, with the US market showing a stronger trend due to increased exports, while Brazilian soybean prices may face pressure in the medium term [4]. - The domestic spot market for soybean meal and rapeseed meal is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with soybean meal showing a phased rebound and rapeseed meal experiencing a decline [3]. - The price of US soybeans is expected to have limited upside space and will mainly fluctuate at high levels, while the price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to fluctuate. The price of soybean meal may face pressure in the medium to long term, and the demand for rapeseed meal is generally weak [7]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - US soybean futures continued to rise slightly, driven by improved trade relations. Brazilian soybean prices remained stable, with limited changes in exports and international demand. Domestic soybean meal futures rebounded due to the overall rebound in agricultural products, while rapeseed meal futures declined after a recent rally [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened, and the inter - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the international market, the fundamental changes in US soybeans are limited. The estimated reduction in new - crop yields provides some support for prices, but the upside space is limited. In South America, the supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase as the new - crop planting progresses rapidly, and the old - crop exports and crushing are strong. The old - crop production in Argentina is large, and the pressure on exports has eased [4]. - In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is abundant, with increasing oil - mill operating rates. The supply of rapeseed meal is also relatively loose, with sufficient granular rapeseed meal inventory [5]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - environment has stabilized recently. Positive signals from China - US negotiations have boosted the US soybean market. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans. However, the impact of macro - factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future [6]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The upward movement of US soybean prices is mainly driven by short - term factors, and the upside space is limited. Brazilian soybean prices are expected to face pressure but may be supported by slow planting progress in the short term. The price of soybean meal is supported in the short term but may face pressure in the long term. The demand for rapeseed meal is weak, and the inter - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for the 05 contract. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. - For options, a short straddle strategy is suggested [8][9].