Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-10 12:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company's revenue growth has turned positive, slightly exceeding expectations, with a 2.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, and a 0.3% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [6] - Non-interest income has significantly improved, contributing to revenue growth, while interest income remains under pressure [6] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio holding steady at 1.33% [6] Financial Data Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 843,070 million, with a year-on-year decline of 3.73%, while 2024 is expected to see a slight decline of 2.52% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 363,993 million in 2023, with a modest growth of 0.79% [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 10.67% in 2023 to 8.74% by 2027 [5] Loan and Deposit Trends - Loan growth remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 8.4% in Q3 2025, primarily driven by a significant rise in bill financing [6][9] - Deposits grew by 7.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total deposits exceeding 30 trillion in the first three quarters [6] Interest Margin and Cost of Liabilities - The net interest margin for the first nine months of 2025 is reported at 1.28%, showing a slight decline compared to previous periods [6] - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities has decreased, which has helped stabilize the interest margin [6] Asset Quality and Provision Coverage - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 1.33%, with a provision coverage ratio of 217.2% as of Q3 2025 [6] - The bank's ability to absorb risks is supported by its strong provision coverage [6]