Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, mainly due to the release of some negative sentiment from the public notice of a mine by the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources. The strong current and expected demand drove the price to rise with increased positions [3]. - The current market has strong supply and demand. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the supply - side expectations are wavering, which may cause significant price fluctuations. Although the SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October and is expected to remain strong from November to December, it still faces the problem of ore shortage. The apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the continuation of demand, the off - season performance in the first quarter of next year, and the renewal policy. The expected demand for energy storage may generate speculative demand when the price drops, raising the price center. The social inventory is continuing to be destocked, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant. The market is tight in November and December, but if a certain production capacity resumes in the near future, it may ease in December. In the long run, if the price drops due to resumed production, it is a good time to buy at a low price [4]. - The current demand is still strong, and the downstream procurement demand is still strong. After the previous price drop, the price was quickly pulled up to fill the gap, with obvious support. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy appropriately after a pull - back. Due to the expected resumed production and off - season expectations, direct chasing of long positions is not recommended, but long positions can be arranged when the price pulls back [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, driven by strong demand and the release of some negative sentiment from the mine notice [3]. Fundamental Situation - Supply: SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October, expected to be strong from November to December, but facing ore shortage [4]. - Demand: Apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to demand continuation, off - season performance, and renewal policy. Expected energy - storage demand may generate speculative demand when prices drop [4]. - Inventory and Basis: Social inventory is destocking, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant [4]. - Balance: The market is tight in November and December. If a certain production capacity resumes, it may ease in December. In the long run, a price drop due to resumed production is a buying opportunity [4]. Summary and Strategy - The current demand is strong, and the downstream procurement demand is high. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy after a pull - back. Do not directly chase long positions, but arrange long positions when the price pulls back [5].
需求持续超预期，股期联动锂价大涨
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-10 12:50