Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are both decreasing, with slow inventory depletion. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of large factories in the northwest [6]. - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract bottomed out and rebounded, closing at 9220 yuan/ton on November 7 [6]. - Supply: The operating rate in Xinjiang remained stable, with a slight increase in output; the operating rate in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little; most silicon enterprises in Yunnan stopped production in late October, and some stopped in early November; some silicon enterprises in Sichuan may stop production partially. Overall, the output of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month [6]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon enterprises decreased month - on - month; the operating rate of silicone was basically stable; the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises changed little, with on - demand procurement. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [6]. - Cost: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - Inventory: As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 552000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 53215 yuan/ton on November 7 [7]. - Supply: The output of polysilicon in October was 137400 tons, a slight increase from September. In November, with the successive shutdowns in the southwest production areas, the production schedule of polysilicon declined significantly [7]. - Demand: Terminal demand remained weak, and price transmission in the industrial chain was poor. Silicon wafer and battery prices were loose, and downstream crystal - pulling enterprises only maintained rigid - demand procurement. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28% [7]. - Cost: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - Inventory: There was little change in inventory recently, and there was still a possibility of inventory accumulation as subsequent orders decreased [7]. Price and Spread - Industrial Silicon Price and Spread: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 and 421 oxygen - passed were unchanged from last week; the spread between Yunnan's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon and Xinjiang's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon remained stable compared with last week [10][14]. - Polysilicon Price and Spread: As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices of N - type dense material, P - type dense material, and P - type cauliflower material were unchanged from last week; the spread between N - type dense material and P - type dense material, and N - type dense material and P - type cauliflower material remained stable compared with last week [17][21]. Cost - Silicon Coal and Silica Stone: As of November 7, 2025, the delivered prices of silicon coal in Ningxia and Xinjiang remained stable; the delivered prices of silica stone in Hubei, Xinjiang, and Yunnan remained stable [25]. - Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong ports remained stable; the electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained stable [28]. - Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of wood chips and charcoal in Yunnan, and high - power graphite electrodes in Jiangsu remained stable [32]. Downstream Products - Silicon Wafers: As of November 7, 2025, the average prices of N - type silicon wafers decreased slightly compared with last week. Affected by weak terminal demand and cautious downstream procurement, silicon wafer prices decreased slightly, but the decline space may be limited due to cost support [34]. - Batteries: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared with last week. The battery market continued to be weak, with component manufacturers pressing prices and battery manufacturers lowering quotes [38]. - Components: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of TOPCon components remained stable. The market demand was differentiated, with large - size components having firm quotes due to domestic centralized project demand, while conventional - size components had high inventory and weak demand, with prices hovering at low levels [41]. - Organic Silicon: As of November 7, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China increased by 500 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the operating rate was basically stable [45]. - Aluminum Alloy: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, and they procured industrial silicon on - demand [49].
西南减产，工晶硅震荡反弹
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-11-10 12:50