地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：山东篇

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shandong Province's economic aggregate ranks third in China, with its general public budget revenue ranking among the top in the country. Affected by the land and real - estate market environment, the government - funded revenue has declined. The province has made continuous progress in the "New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion" and formed a cluster system of "Ten Strong Industries" [4]. - In 2024, the debt balance and debt ratio of local governments in Shandong increased, and the province continued to promote the "Package Debt Resolution Plan". From the perspective of urban investment enterprises, the overall debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Shandong showed an upward trend from 2022 - 2024, but the growth rate slowed down in 2024. Although the "Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises + Local Government Debt"/Comprehensive Financial Resources ratio of some cities exceeded 500%, considering the large economic development potential and multiple debt - resolution policies, the risks of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were generally controllable [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Shandong's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Shandong - Shandong has developed transportation, obvious location and port advantages. In 2024, its economic growth rate was slightly higher than the national average, and its economic aggregate ranked third in China. The province has a large population base with a negative growth rate, and its urbanization rate is slightly lower than the national average [6][10][11]. - The province's economy has been growing steadily. In 2024, its GDP was 98565.8 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.7%. In the first half of 2025, its GDP was 50046 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The per - capita GDP in 2024 was about 97,800 yuan, ranking 11th in China [11]. - Shandong's marine economy is prominent. In 2024, its marine economic output value was 18011.8 billion yuan, ranking second in China, accounting for 18.3% of GDP. The "New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion" continued to advance, and the "Ten Strong Industries" cluster system took shape. The construction of the Transportation Power Shandong Demonstration Zone and ports will boost the development of key industries [15][16][17]. - Shandong has received central policy support. Since 2024, it has actively implemented a package of incremental policies, striving for multiple funds and launching multiple policy lists [19]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation in Shandong - In 2024, Shandong's general public budget revenue ranked fifth in China, with a growth of 3.3%. Affected by the real - estate market, the government - funded revenue decreased in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [22][23]. - Shandong's comprehensive financial resources continued to grow, ranking fifth in China. The overall government debt burden was at a medium level in China. In 2024, the government debt scale, debt ratio, and debt - to - GDP ratio all increased compared with the previous year [28][30]. - The province continued to promote the "Package Debt Resolution Plan", issued large - scale implicit debt replacement bonds in 2024 and 2025, and steadily advanced the "Withdrawal from Platform" work, aiming to "eliminate" the stock of implicit debt by the end of 2028 [31]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Strength of Prefecture - level Cities in Shandong 3.2.1 Development Status of Prefecture - level Cities in Shandong - Shandong has 16 prefecture - level cities, forming a "One Group, Two Centers, Three Circles" regional development pattern. The provincial capital economic circle and the Jiaodong economic circle have good industrial foundations, while the southern Shandong economic circle is relatively weak [32]. - In terms of GDP scale, Qingdao, Jinan, and Yantai rank among the top. In 2024, the GDP growth rate of each city slightly declined, and in the first half of 2025, the GDP continued to grow with little change in the growth rate [35]. - The per - capita GDP of Dongying and Qingdao is relatively high, while that of Linyi and Heze is relatively low. Qingdao and Jinan have strong population siphon effects [36]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities in Shandong - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of each city in Shandong increased, but the scale differentiation was obvious. In the first half of 2025, the growth rate generally slowed down, and Yantai's general public budget revenue decreased [38][39]. - Affected by the real - estate market, the government - funded revenue of some cities continued to decline significantly in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [41][43]. - Cities with lower urbanization rates in Shandong have a higher proportion of superior subsidy income. The comprehensive financial resources of each city vary significantly, and more than 50% of the cities' comprehensive fiscal revenues have not exceeded 100 billion yuan [44]. - In 2024, the government debt balance and debt ratio of each city in Shandong increased. Qingdao and Weihai had relatively high government debt ratios. The province increased transfer payments, and each city also resolved debts by seeking financial resource support and revitalizing stock assets [47][49]. 3.3 Debt - paying Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Shandong 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of September 2025, there were 265 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Shandong. Qingdao and Weifang had a relatively large number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises. The main credit ratings of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were AA and AA +, and AAA - rated enterprises were mainly concentrated at the provincial level, in Jinan, and in Qingdao [52]. 3.3.2 Bond - issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances in Shandong decreased. Qingdao and Jinan had a large net bond financing scale. From January to September 2025, the net bond financing of urban investment enterprises in some cities turned negative, and Jining had a large - scale net bond repayment [54]. 3.3.3 Analysis of Debt - paying Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises - From 2022 - 2024, the overall debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Shandong showed an upward trend, but the growth rate slowed down in 2024. Bank loans and bond financing were the main financing methods, and the proportion of other financing channels decreased [55][58]. - As of the end of June 2025, most cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' short - term debt - paying indicators improved, but those in Qingdao, Rizhao, and Liaocheng still faced great short - term debt - paying pressure. The scale of bonds due in 2026 in Qingdao and Jinan was relatively large [55][62]. - Jining's net cash flow from financing activities has been negative since 2023, and Rizhao's turned negative since 2024 [58][64]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Prefecture - level Cities for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of "Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises + Local Government Debt"/Comprehensive Financial Resources of prefecture - level cities in Shandong exceeded 200%. Considering the large economic development potential and multiple debt - resolution policies in cities such as Qingdao and Jinan, the risks of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were generally controllable [68].