有色金属衍生品日报-20251110

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - Important Information: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - Logic Analysis: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - Trading Strategy: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - Market Review: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - Related Information: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - Logic Analysis: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - Trading Strategy: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - Related Information: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - Trading Logic: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - Trading Strategy: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - Related Information: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - Trading Logic: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - Trading Strategy: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - Related Information: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - Logic Analysis: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - Trading Strategy: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - Related Information: Social inventories increased [41] - Logic Analysis: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - Trading Strategy: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - Important Information: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - Important Information: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - Logic Analysis: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - Related Information: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - Trading Strategy: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - Important Information: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - Logic Analysis: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - Important Information: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - Important Information: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - Logic Analysis: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - Trading Strategy: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]