市场乐观，沪铝震荡上行

Sector Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The macro news stimulates the market sentiment to be optimistic, and non-ferrous metals generally strengthen. Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rises, LME Aluminum rises, and domestic spot aluminum falls. SHFE Aluminum continues the oscillating upward trend, and the medium-term focus is on the change of spot demand [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - The US Congress is close to reaching an agreement, the government shutdown is expected to end, and China and the US will mutually cancel trade restrictions. The US dollar rises and the RMB slightly falls [4]. - SHFE Aluminum closes at 21,725, and the spot price is 21,480, with a spot - futures discount of -425 points. The spot discount this week remains flat at -30 yuan, and spot trading is poor [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is stable, the alumina inventory rises, the SHFE aluminum inventory slightly decreases, and the spot demand is average. The LME inventory significantly rises, the LME spot discount widens to -13 US dollars, and the overseas spot demand is poor [4]. - The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices rises to 7.59, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [4]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil surges, LME Aluminum slightly rises and trades around 2,880 US dollars. SHFE Aluminum rebounds after hitting a low, slightly rises, approaches a new high, and closes at 21,725, with a strong technical pattern [4]. - The trading volume of SHFE Aluminum decreases and the open interest increases, and the market sentiment is optimistic [4]. Influencing Factors - The hype of anti - involution cools down, and alumina oscillates at a low level. Trade disputes ease, the Russia - Ukraine situation is unclear, and energy prices rise, which strengthen the market sentiment [4]. - After the hype of gold and copper declines, small metals are favored by funds, and the overseas price ratio is significantly higher than the domestic one [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Nov 4 | 7.1352 | -30 | -4 | 7.43 | | Nov 5 | 7.1312 | -20 | -7 | 7.50 | | Nov 6 | 7.1209 | -30 | -7 | 7.52 | | Nov 7 | 7.1251 | -30 | -14 | 7.53 | | Nov 10 | 7.1206 | -30 | -13 | 7.59 | [5]