软商品日报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - number rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, cost, and inventory factors [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton showed a volatile trend today, and the basis of cotton spot sales remained stable. The cost of new cotton provides some support to the futures price, but there is hedging pressure for significant price increases. As of November 6, the cumulative national cotton processing was 319.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.5 million tons. The cotton yarn market changed little, with demand remaining stable. The improvement in Sino - US relations also supports cotton prices. Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, and sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. There are rumors of syrup import control, which provides some support. The market is focusing on the next season's production estimate. Based on remote sensing data, the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price rebounded. In the Shandong apple production area, the apple acquisition is nearing the end. The price of high - quality apples remained stable, while the price of general and semi - first - grade apples declined slightly. As of November 6, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 682.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The market trading logic has shifted to sales expectations. Due to the high acquisition price and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell, the de - stocking speed may be affected. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. An overall bearish approach is recommended [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - number rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price rose slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan production area in China has entered the low - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased slightly last week. The domestic tire operating rate continued to rise slightly, and the inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased. Rubber inventories increased, and cost support was weak. The market sentiment improved. An oversold rebound strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to rise, and the spot prices followed suit. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.3 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. Overseas阔叶浆 quotes are strong, and some traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream procurement willingness is average. The pulp valuation is still low, with medium - to - long - term improvement expectations. Recently, the willingness of funds to push up prices is strong. Buying on dips is recommended [7] Logs - The futures price was weak. The spot price in Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The external quote is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve. The demand from port shipments is above 60,000 cubic meters, which supports prices. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see [8]