黑色金属日报-20251110

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, with the short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, with the short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry has weak domestic demand, and although the macro - sentiment has improved, the rebound momentum of the futures market is insufficient. The iron ore market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Coke and coking coal are expected to be in a strong and volatile state. Silicon manganese has strong price support at the bottom, and silicon ferrosilicon is likely to rise [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Steel - Today's futures market rebounded slightly. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased month - on - month, production declined, and the inventory reduction slowed. The demand for hot roll dropped significantly, production decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The high - level iron - making water production declined, and the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. Domestic demand is weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The futures market has gradually stabilized in the short term, but the rebound momentum is still insufficient [2] Iron Ore - Today's futures market fluctuated, and the basis has strengthened recently. The global shipment decreased month - on - month, with Australia and Brazil both showing declines. The domestic arrival volume decreased significantly month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period. Due to the decline in steel demand in the off - season and increased losses of steel mills, iron - making water production continued to decrease last week. The futures market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [3] Coke - The price fluctuated during the day. After the third round of price increases was quickly implemented, there is an expectation of a fourth round. Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Downstream demand is weak, and the steel industry has a strong desire to suppress raw material prices. The futures price is at a premium, and it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated during the day. Recently, Mongolian coal imports have increased, and the customs clearance volume has remained high. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and the total inventory increased slightly. With the approaching safety inspection in major coal - producing areas, its impact should be noted. The futures price is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state [6] Silicon Manganese - The price was in a strong and volatile state during the day. The demand side shows a continuous decline in iron - making water production. Silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and inventory gradually increased. The price of manganese ore has a strong bottom - support, and the price is expected to be stable [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price was in a strong and volatile state during the day. The demand side shows a continuous decline in iron - making water production, but export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Supply remains high, and inventory has been decreasing. Due to the increase in electricity and blue - carbon prices, the price is likely to rise [8]