每日核心期货品种分析-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View As of November 10, 2025, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Commodities like lithium carbonate and silver had significant increases, while glass and some others declined. Different futures varieties showed diverse trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, policy impacts, and international market conditions [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 10, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Lithium carbonate rose over 7%, and silver over 2%. Glass fell nearly 3%, and some other contracts also declined. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures showed mixed trends [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 10, contracts such as CSI 300 2512 and CSI 500 2512 had capital inflows, while alumina 2601 and others had outflows [7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Futures - Copper (Cu): On November 10, copper opened high and closed low, with a strong intraday oscillation. In November, 5 smelters were expected to undergo maintenance, affecting 4.80 million tons of production. The overall copper smelting capacity utilization rate decreased. The supply of scrap copper was expected to increase. The demand was weak, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had been accumulating since the end of October. With the US government shutdown and low probability of a December interest - rate cut, the copper price had limited rebound [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: It opened and closed high on November 10. The supply continued to grow in October 2025. The demand was strong, supported by energy - storage batteries. With the uncertain resumption time of large manufacturers and strong demand, the market was expected to be strong [11]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, but suspend it in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price for Asian customers in December. The demand peak had ended, and the market was worried about demand. The supply was in an oversupply situation, but the export of Russian crude oil was expected to be restricted. The oil price was expected to oscillate [12][14]. - Asphalt: The asphalt production rate decreased last week, and the demand was affected by funds and weather. The inventory ratio continued to decline. With the increase in production from some refineries and the weakening demand, and the oscillating crude - oil price, the asphalt futures price was expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - PP: The downstream PP operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate was at a medium - low level. The cost was affected by the crude - oil price. With new capacity coming on - stream and limited order follow - up, the market was expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - Plastic: The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The downstream operating rate was at a low level. With new capacity coming on - stream and weakening demand, the market was expected to oscillate weakly [18][20]. - PVC: The PVC operating rate increased, but the downstream operating rate declined. The export was expected to weaken, and the inventory was high. With the real - estate market still in adjustment and new capacity coming on - stream, the market was expected to oscillate weakly [21]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal price opened and closed low on November 10. The supply was in a tight - balance situation, and the downstream demand was weak. The market was expected to operate weakly [22][23]. - Urea: The daily urea production was expected to remain high. The cost was supported by coal prices. The demand was mainly for domestic reserves, and the inventory was increasing. After the impact of export news faded, the market was expected to operate based on fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations [24].