成本宽松趋势下，论钢铁板块的攻防策略

Core Insights - The main trading theme for the steel sector in 2026 is expected to be "iron ore concessions + the realization of steel production cuts under anti-involution" [2][6] - The anticipated concession space for iron ore in 2026 may exceed that of coking coal in 2025, as iron ore constitutes a larger share of crude steel costs [6][7] - The "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" is expected to serve as a tool for "graded management" in the steel sector, categorizing companies into "leading," "standard," and "non-standard" types for differentiated production control [7] Market Trends - Demand is gradually entering a low season, leading to weakened profitability and reduced production enthusiasm among steel mills [4] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased by 2.40% year-on-year and 6.05% month-on-month, with rebar prices dropping to 3200 CNY/ton [4] - The average daily pig iron output has fallen to 2.3422 million tons, a decrease of 2.14 thousand tons per day [4] Cost Dynamics - The cost side is expected to continue weakening, with the release of new capacities for iron and coking coal [25] - The profit distribution in the black industry chain shows that iron ore accounted for 72% of profits, indicating significant room for concessions [6][25] - The price of iron ore is projected to gradually decline to a support level of 90 USD/ton by 2026, as new capacities come online [6][20] Strategic Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality steel companies such as Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, which are expected to see performance elasticity under favorable cost conditions [6][25] - The anti-involution policy is expected to strengthen the supply-side contraction, making low P/B ratio stocks like New Steel and Fangda Special Steel more attractive for performance and valuation recovery [25][26] - Mergers and acquisitions are anticipated to accelerate under the national enterprise reform theme, enhancing asset quality and subsequent valuation recovery for involved companies [26] Future Outlook - The expectation for 2026 includes a higher likelihood of production cuts due to the implementation of differentiated production control measures [7] - The anticipated recovery in steel prices is supported by the global easing cycle and domestic economic growth measures [7][26] - The report suggests that companies with strong acquisition capabilities and operational elasticity, such as Fangda Special Steel, are well-positioned for growth [7][26]