XHCG(SH:600785) CMS·2025-11-10 15:15Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company has significant local advantages in its retail business, with a solid foundation in four major business formats. The parent company, Wumart Group, provides multi-dimensional support to enhance the digital and supply chain competitiveness of Xinhua Department Store. Additionally, the company is expected to benefit from quality retail operations inspired by the model of Pang Donglai, which may lead to a renewal in retail operations. The long-term competitive barriers in the local market and future operational improvement potential are viewed positively [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,065 million yuan in 2023 to 8,121 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% [3][8]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 144 million yuan in 2023 to 229 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 62% in 2023 and stabilizing thereafter [3][9]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 136 million yuan in 2023 to 182 million yuan in 2027, with a notable growth of 46% in 2023 [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to grow from 0.60 yuan in 2023 to 0.81 yuan in 2027 [3][9]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.1 in 2023 to 17.2 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation [3][9]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.452 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.40% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 22 million yuan, an increase of 3.94% [6]. - The company opened a total of 342 stores in the first three quarters of 2025, with 240 supermarkets, 14 department stores, and 88 appliance stores [6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its regional advantages and optimizing various business formats, with significant efforts in self-operated brands and supply chain management [6]. Investment Recommendations - Xinhua Department Store is recognized as a leading retail player in Ningxia, benefiting from local advantages and multi-dimensional support from Wumart Group. The ongoing reforms are expected to rejuvenate supermarket operations, and the company is projected to maintain long-term competitive barriers in the local market [6]. The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 142 million, 158 million, and 182 million yuan, respectively [6].