NMHD(SH:600863) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-10 15:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the "coal-electricity integration" business model, which offers a competitive edge compared to traditional coal-fired power generation. The company's green energy strategy is also highlighted as it positions itself for growth during the industry's recovery phase [2][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading coal-electricity integrated enterprise in Inner Mongolia, with a stable growth in installed capacity. As of mid-2025, the total installed capacity reached 13.2762 million kilowatts, with coal-fired power accounting for 11.4 million kilowatts and renewable energy for 1.8762 million kilowatts [5][22]. Coal Power Business - The coal power segment is supported by a robust business model that mitigates risks associated with coal price fluctuations. The company has a coal production capacity of 15 million tons per year, with a significant portion being sold externally. The report notes that the coal price dynamics positively influence profitability [6][38]. - The company has committed to a high dividend payout, with an average dividend ratio of 60.85% over the past three years, and a projected dividend yield of 5.45% for 2024 [5][34]. Green Energy Business - The green energy sector is expected to experience growth as the industry transitions to a new cycle of high-quality development. The company plans to expand its renewable energy capacity significantly, with 188,000 kilowatts in operation and 204,000 kilowatts under construction as of mid-2025 [7][68]. - The acquisition of high-quality wind power assets is anticipated to enhance the company's profitability, with favorable return on equity metrics for the acquired assets [7][68]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected at 2.325 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.98%. However, a decline in net profit is expected in the first three quarters of 2025 due to external coal prices and reduced electricity generation [29][31]. - The report forecasts net profits of 2.398 billion yuan, 3.127 billion yuan, and 3.311 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.37 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.41 yuan [8].