格林大华期货早盘提示-20251111

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The global economic situation is complex. The US government's "shutdown" crisis is about to be resolved, with about $1 trillion of TGA funds expected to flow back into the economic system, injecting large - scale liquidity. However, the global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies. The AI application is moving from the concept to the practical stage, but there are signs that AI demand may be moderating. There are also significant capital flows and style changes in the stock market, such as US funds flowing into Japanese technology and AI sectors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Financial - Global Economy - Policy and Liquidity: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government "shutdown", providing funds until January 30, 2026. About $1 trillion of TGA funds is expected to return to the economic system, and the increase in S&P 500 index futures open - interest by about $21 billion indicates new long - position entry [1]. - AI Development: In Q3 2025, 24% of AI - adopting enterprises have achieved quantifiable benefits. Compared with the 1999 dot - com bubble, current leading enterprises have a free cash flow yield of 3.5% (1.2% in 2000), showing fundamental support for high valuations. But the slowdown in TSMC's monthly sales growth is seen as a sign of possible easing AI demand, leading to a sell - off of tech stocks last week [1]. - US Consumption: Pandemic - accumulated excess savings of US households are almost exhausted, but the high ratio of household net worth to disposable income, mainly due to asset values like stocks, still supports consumption to some extent [1]. - Stock Market Capital Flow: US funds are flowing into Japanese technology and AI sectors at the fastest pace since "Abenomics", potentially triggering a shift from value to growth stocks. However, Citigroup warns that Japanese tech stocks are over - valued [1]. - Fed Policy: Powell's cautious remarks after the October rate cut suggest that December rate cut needs data support. Current alternative data shows a gradual cooling of the labor market, giving the Fed a reason to pause rate cuts [1]. 3.2 Global Economic Logic - AI and Geopolitics: NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2]. - Stock Market Outlook: Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stock markets, stating that many Chinese stocks are "very attractive" with rising global valuations [2]. - Data Center Construction: The US is planning or building data center projects with a total capacity of over 45 gigawatts and an expected investment of over $2.5 trillion. There is a shortage of construction workers for data centers [2]. - AI Energy Demand: Apollo Global Management warns of a huge gap between AI's large energy demand and the current global power supply, which may not be filled in our lifetime [2]. - US Market Valuation: The US stock market's cyclically - adjusted price - to - earnings ratio (Shiller P/E) has reached 40 for the second time in history, similar to the 1999 dot - com bubble [2]. - US Consumption and Employment: Consumption in the US is slowing, especially among the 25 - 35 - year - old middle - income group. In October, US corporate layoffs reached 153,074, mainly in the tech and warehousing industries, a 183% increase from September and nearly three times that of last year, which may be an economic warning signal [2].