美联储理事米兰：12月降息50个基点较为合适

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but whether they can continue to rise and start the next wave of the market remains to be observed [12]. - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [16]. - For stock indices, a balanced long - position allocation is recommended [20]. - US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [26]. - The bond market is expected to be in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [29]. - For various commodities, different investment suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals, such as short - term bullish or bearish outlooks, and strategies like long or short positions at appropriate times [32][35][39] etc. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut is needed. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to expectations of the Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion and Trump's proposed fiscal expansion. Buying funds entered the market around $4000. Gold is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but the sustainability of the upward trend needs further observation [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Switzerland is close to reaching a deal with the US to reduce its export tariff to 15%. Trump supports the Senate's agreement to end the government shutdown. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the relief of market tightness and the recovery of risk appetite [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was strong driven by consumer stocks. New policies on consumption have been introduced this year, but the sustainability of the traditional consumer stocks' rally remains to be seen. A balanced long - position allocation for stock indices is recommended [17][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Some Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Trump is trying to reduce tariffs on Switzerland and India. The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. The US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [21][23][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of funds. Inflation data has a limited negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [27][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, domestic soybean oil mills' soybean inventory increased, while soybean meal inventory decreased. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report and China's soybean procurement and South American weather [30][32]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Simandou Iron Ore project is about to be put into production. Steel prices are oscillating slightly upward, but there is no obvious trend. The valuation of steel prices is not high, but there is still fundamental pressure. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short - term [33][34][35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan's sugar mills will start crushing on November 15. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi is expected to start on November 15, postponed by 7 days. India allows 150,000 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contracts can be considered [36][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 10, the import market of steam coal had a dull trading performance. Coal prices have risen sharply since November, supported by seasonal demand. However, there is also regulatory pressure above 800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [40][41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Grange's iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. Iron ore prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is moderately high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally in November - December. The valuation space is difficult to open in the short - term [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the East China market is running strongly. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the fourth round of coke price increases is underway. The coking coal market is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term, but the decline in hot - metal production and high downstream inventory may put pressure on the market [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased in October. The oil market rebounded slightly due to the release of the data. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate after a small - scale rebound in November. Attention should be paid to the weather from December to early next year. Opportunities for long positions in the 05 contract and 1 - 5 spread short - positions can be considered [45][46][47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions have different levels of theoretical profits. Corn prices are rising, and starch prices are stable. Enterprises are expected to maintain profitability, and the开机 rate is expected to increase. A band - trading strategy is recommended [48]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are strong. Farmers' willingness to sell is weak, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term and rebound in the long - term. Caution is needed for far - month contracts [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has been slightly reduced. The futures price of the main contract has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a guidance on promoting new - energy consumption and regulation. The polysilicon market is entering a critical point of policy - and fundamental - based games. If the progress of platform companies fails to meet expectations, the spot price may fall. A short - position strategy at high prices can be considered [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A shareholder of Hesheng Silicon Industry plans to reduce its shareholding. With the arrival of the dry season, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. A long - position strategy at low prices can be considered, but profit - taking at high prices is necessary [55][56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount, and the inventory of lead ingots is increasing. The supply and demand of lead are expected to remain strong in the short - term. The industry can consider short - position hedging at high prices [57][58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc concentrate production decreased in November. The LME zinc is at a premium, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The industry can consider short - position hedging at medium - term highs, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [59][60][61]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Sumitomo's nickel - bean production increased. The raw - material price is expected to remain stable and strong. The inventory accumulation of refined nickel is slowing down. Attention can be paid to long - position opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [62][63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng Lithium's PPGS lithium - salt lake project obtained an environmental assessment report. The lithium - carbonate market is in a game between strong current reality and weak future expectations. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, and a short - position strategy at high prices can be considered in the medium - term [64][65][66]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A Congolese mine suspended operations due to a leakage incident. A company applied for a US seabed - mining license. The valuation of an Ecuadorian copper mine is $4.6 billion. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and a long - position strategy can be considered, but large - scale increases are limited [67][68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Two Indian state - owned enterprises bought 5 million barrels of oil from the US and the Middle East. Oil prices are oscillating, and the recovery of market risk appetite provides some support [70][71]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market is relatively strong recently, but the risk of further upward movement has increased as European pulp can now be registered as warehouse receipts [73]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [74][75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is weakly sorted. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. A short - position strategy at rebounds for near - month contracts and a long - position strategy for far - month contracts after price over - decline can be considered [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity - utilization rate of compound fertilizers is stable. Urea prices rebounded due to new export - quota policies and replenishment demand. Urea prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [79][80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Guoen was put into operation. The fundamental upward drive of pure benzene and styrene is limited. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [82][83][84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. The asphalt market is weakly oscillating, and it is waiting for the winter - storage policy [85][86][87]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. Soda - ash prices rose due to cost support and production suspension of some enterprises. In the short - term, the downward space of soda - ash prices depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity commissioning. A bearish view is recommended in the medium - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased. The glass market is bearish due to weak production and sales after price increases last week. It is recommended to wait and see [89][90]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk has no intention to return to the Red Sea in the short - term. The SCFIS (Europe route) index increased. The container - freight - rate market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the spot price and booking situation [91][92].