工业硅、多晶硅日评：上方承压-20251111

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The silicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. The market for polycrystalline silicon has limited willingness for downstream restocking, and there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market, potentially leading to a decline [1]. Group 3: Summary of Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.54% to 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.76% to 9,290 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production at the end of October, and the operating rate of silicon enterprises decreased significantly. In the north, the number of furnaces in operation increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, silicone enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced production or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The silicon market has a situation of weak supply and demand, and the industrial silicon remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is range operation [1]. Group 4: Summary of Polysilicon Price Changes - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Silicon material enterprises continued to reduce production, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the production in October is expected to increase slightly, and the production in November may decline. The polysilicon market transactions were relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is significant pressure for further price increases in the spot market, potentially leading to a decline. For previous long positions, pay attention to profit protection. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, you can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Group 5: Other Information - According to SMM statistics, the upstream inventory of the photovoltaic cell market is about 6GW, a week - on - week decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 193.4%. Recently, JA Solar signed a cooperation agreement with South Korea's Dabo Group to jointly build a 21MW photovoltaic power station in South Korea's Gangwon - do. The project is expected to be connected to the grid in August 2026 [1].