利率固收定期报告：利率PPI超预期，有色能否全面拉动PPI？

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the release of October inflation data, the month-on-month PPI unexpectedly turned positive, with non-ferrous metals performing prominently. However, the month-on-month PPI is not expected to continuously exceed expectations, and the rise in non-ferrous metal prices alone is insufficient to drive a significant increase in PPI. The year-on-year recovery of PPI next year is mainly due to the base effect, and the recovery of non-ferrous metal prices alone cannot support the year-on-year PPI to significantly exceed 0 [2]. - The reasons for the unexpected positive month-on-month PPI in October include the continuous deviation of the prediction results of PMI ex-factory prices and purchase prices since August, the lag effect of the recovery of upstream prices in the third quarter due to poor demand, and the support of coal and non-ferrous metals at the industry level. It is also expected that the year-on-year PPI may remain volatile within the year [2]. - Although the weight of non-ferrous related industries in PPI has increased, oil, black metals, and coal still dominate. A 10% increase in the month-on-month price of the non-ferrous metal industry will drive a 0.6 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI, and a 10% increase in the 3-month moving average of copper prices will lead to a 0.135 percentage point recovery in the month-on-month PPI [2]. - Regarding the conditions for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive next year, only in scenarios where the month-on-month PPI remains at 0.1% or follows the seasonal pattern will the year-on-year PPI turn positive in the middle of next year. Based on the assumption of commodity price trends, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in August next year [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Why did the month-on-month PPI exceed expectations? - Since August, the prediction results of PMI ex-factory prices and purchase prices have continuously deviated, and the performance of purchase prices is significantly better than that of ex-factory prices, which led to the deviation of the October prediction results [5]. - Poor demand caused a lag effect in the recovery of upstream prices in the third quarter. From July to September, the month-on-month PPI of production materials showed an obvious recovery trend [5]. - At the industry level, coal and non-ferrous metals supported the unexpected positive month-on-month PPI in October. The coal price increase was driven by anti-involution policies, and the sharp rise in copper prices was due to global supply disruptions and increased demand from AI enterprise capital expenditures [5]. 2. Has the weight of non-ferrous metals in PPI increased? 2.1 From an industry perspective, the proportion of non-ferrous metals has increased, but oil and black metals are still the main contributors - The weight of non-ferrous related industries has increased. Compared with 2020, the revenue share of the non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry in 2024 increased by 1.24 percentage points to 6.24%. However, since 2020, the industries with the largest contributions have still been oil, black metals, coal, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [2][11]. - The revenue share of each industry in 2024 did not show obvious structural changes compared with 2020. The top ten industries remained the same, only with slight changes in the ranking order [12]. - The industry concentration has increased, and the industries with a significant increase in proportion are those with high weights. The top five industries with an increase in proportion are the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, power and heat production and supply industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, and gas production and supply industry [13]. - A 10 percentage point month-on-month increase in the non-ferrous metal industry will drive a 0.6 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI. Assuming the prices of other industries remain unchanged, a moderate recovery in non-ferrous metal prices will drive the year-on-year PPI to turn positive in June next year [16]. 2.2 From the perspective of underlying commodities, the predictive role of copper prices has increased - Using the combination of oil and steel for prediction had good results before 2020, but the prediction effect weakened significantly after 2020 [18]. - Adding copper improved the prediction effect for the period after 2022, and replacing copper with aluminum also improved the prediction effect, but not as effectively as copper [18]. - Adding coal improved the overall prediction effect, and the combination of oil, steel, copper, and coal had the best prediction effect [19]. - A 10% increase in the 3-month moving average of copper prices will drive a 0.135 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI. Assuming the prices of oil, steel, and coal remain unchanged, a moderate month-on-month increase in copper prices can support the year-on-year PPI to turn positive in July next year [20]. 3. Conditions for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive 3.1 Even if prices remain unchanged, the year-on-year PPI will be around 0 next year - Assuming the month-on-month PPI remains around 0%, the year-on-year PPI will be difficult to turn positive next year [26]. - Assuming the month-on-month PPI remains at 0.1%, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in June next year [27]. - Assuming the month-on-month PPI follows the seasonal pattern, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in July next year, and by the end of 2026, the year-on-year PPI will recover to around 0.9% [29]. 3.2 From the perspective of anti-involution - One method is to predict each major industry category based on the understanding of anti-involution policies and then estimate the overall month-on-month PPI based on weights. However, this method has two problems: anti-involution does not necessarily lead to price increases, and it only focuses on the supply side while ignoring the demand side [31]. - Another method is to estimate the recovery trend of PPI based on historical experience. Referring to the previous round of supply-side reforms, it took 9 months for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive. Based on this, the year-on-year PPI is expected to turn positive around mid-2026 [32]. 3.3 Based on the price prediction model of oil, steel, copper, and coal - It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will decline slightly to $60 per barrel, the price of rebar will first decline and then rise slightly to 3,400 yuan per ton, the LME copper price will rise moderately to around $11,000 per ton, and the coking coal price will recover moderately to 1,300 yuan per ton. Based on this, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in August next year [33].