纯碱：供需错配与成本重塑

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soda ash industry is experiencing a fundamental shift in its supply - demand pattern, with supply exceeding demand and costs declining, leading to a "double - kill" situation and short - term weak price fluctuations [2]. - Different production processes of soda ash have different cost structures, and the industry cost curve is crucial for judging price trends [4]. - The long - term cost support of soda ash may continue to decline due to the impact of natural soda ash [20]. - In the short term, the price will maintain a weak shock pattern, and in the long term, the cost support of soda ash prices will decline as natural soda ash capacity is released [30]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Supply - Demand Imbalance and Cost Decline - The soda ash industry is in a supply - surplus pattern due to past capacity expansion and weak demand from the glass industry. High inventory and low prices are the results [2][4]. - The prices of raw materials such as raw salt, liquid ammonia, and coal are at long - term lows, and the cost of the ammonia - soda process has decreased by nearly 23.39% year - on - year. The cost curve is being reshaped by natural soda ash [2][5]. - The price of soda ash has been falling since the beginning of the year, from nearly 1,600 yuan/ton to around 1,200 yuan/ton, with only a short - term rebound in July due to policy sentiment [5]. Impact of Natural Soda Ash - Only natural soda ash projects have expansion conditions due to policy restrictions. The domestic capacity share of natural soda ash increased from 4.6% in 2022 to 15.8% in 2024, with a CAGR of 85.33% [20]. - Companies like Boyuan Chemical and Zhongyan Chemical are developing natural soda ash. Zhongyan Chemical's project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be fully operational in 2028, with a total capacity of 8.9 million tons and a low cost of about 822 yuan/ton [21]. Future Outlook - In the short term, although there is an expectation of backward capacity withdrawal and low valuation, the price will remain weakly volatile until the fundamentals improve [30]. - In the long term, as domestic natural soda ash capacity is gradually released, it will reshape the industry competition pattern and lead to a decline in the long - term cost support of soda ash prices [30].