Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical futures on November 11, 2025, including trends such as high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and inventory - related impacts [2]. - For different products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy are considered to form corresponding views and suggestions [12][13]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Trends: PX is in a high - level oscillation market supported by overseas blending oil demand; PTA has fair demand but supply pressure, showing a strong - biased oscillation; MEG has a large inventory increase, with a weak unilateral trend [2][12][13]. - Data: PX主力昨日收盘价6852元/吨, 涨72元, 涨幅1.06%; PTA主力收盘价4704元/吨, 涨40元, 涨幅0.86%; MEG主力收盘价3953元/吨, 涨11元, 涨幅0.28% [5]. - Suggestions: For PX, continue to monitor the impact on short - process device operation; for PTA, short the processing fee when it is high; for MEG, conduct a high - selling reverse spread on the monthly spread [12][13]. Rubber - Market Trends: It shows a strong - biased oscillation. The futures price has increased, and the spot price of some varieties has also risen [14][15]. - Data: The rubber main contract's daily - session closing price was 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the night - session closing price was 15,160 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan [15]. - News: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, and the social inventory also had corresponding changes [16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Trends: It is in short - term oscillation. Although the decline rate has slowed down, in the medium - term, the weak operation of butadiene will drive the price of synthetic rubber down [18][21]. - Data: The daily - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the trading volume was 114,254 lots, up 7936 lots [18]. - News: As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory decreased, and the butadiene market was slightly weak on November 10 [19][21]. Asphalt - Market Trends: Factory inventory continues to accumulate, and market sentiment is low. The futures price has declined slightly [22]. - Data: The closing price of BU2512 was 3,034 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of BU2601 was 3,036 yuan/ton, down 0.39% [22]. - News: From November 4 - 10, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased slightly; as of November 10, the factory inventory increased by 0.4%, and the social inventory decreased by 3.5% [36]. LLDPE - Market Trends: The profit in the monomer segment is compressed, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The market price continues to decline slightly [37]. - Data: The closing price of L2601 was 6802 yuan/ton, with no change; the trading volume was 298,530 lots, and the position increased by 930 lots [37]. - Analysis: The raw material oil price oscillates, the downstream demand has rigid support, but the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened, and the supply - side contradiction is not significant in the short - term [37]. PP - Market Trends: The trend is weak. Multiple factors such as trade wars, oil prices, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly put downward pressure on the price [40][41]. - Data: The closing price of PP2601 was 6480 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the trading volume was 276,564 lots, and the position decreased by 13,051 lots [40]. - Analysis: The end of the downstream peak - season restocking and low - price restocking factors, along with continuous weak demand and high supply, suppress the price [41]. Caustic Soda - Market Trends: The cost provides support, and the valuation is being repaired. However, the high - output and high - inventory pattern continues, and the price rebound space is limited [44][45]. - Data: The 01 - contract futures price was 2349 yuan/ton, and the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton [44]. - Analysis: The alumina industry's impact on caustic soda demand is basically offset, and the cost increase can only lead to a low - level valuation repair [45]. Pulp - Market Trends: It shows a strong - biased oscillation. The futures price has increased, and the market sentiment in the downstream finished paper market has improved to some extent [46][49]. - Data: The daily - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the trading volume was 241,489 lots, up 61,509 lots [48]. - News: The futures market is driven by funds, but whether the spot price can continue to rise depends on actual transactions. The price of the downstream living paper market is expected to oscillate [49][50]. Glass - Market Trends: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has declined, and the spot market price continues to weaken slightly [51][52]. - Data: The closing price of FG601 was 1069 yuan/ton, down 2.73%; the trading volume was 2,327,951 lots, and the position increased by 196,321 lots [52]. - Analysis: The futures market oscillates downward, and downstream players purchase at low prices [52]. Methanol - Market Trends: The driving force is downward, but the downward space is gradually narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is under pressure [54][56]. - Data: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,101 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the trading volume was 1,283,246 lots, and the position increased by 14,769 lots [54]. - Analysis: The supply increases after device复产, imports are abundant, and the MTO industry's profit is compressed, but the cost - side support gradually strengthens [56][57]. Urea - Market Trends: It oscillates. The spot trading activity has weakened, and the futures price is under pressure from incremental warehouse receipts [58][60][61]. - Data: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,660 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 174,463 lots, and the position decreased by 11,014 lots [59]. - Analysis: The domestic supply is high, but the export policy eases the downward pressure. The 01 - contract has a strong pressure level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [61]. Styrene - Market Trends: It oscillates in the short - term. The contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the bottom - fishing sentiment of funds at low prices [62][63]. - Data: The closing price of styrene 2512 was 6,315 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the EB - BZ spread was 1020, up 20 [62]. - Analysis: The pure benzene is in a weak pattern, and the domestic supply is high, but the short - term market sentiment is boosted [63]. Soda Ash - Market Trends: The spot market changes little. The market is oscillating strongly, with the light - soda price rising and the market sentiment improving [64]. - Data: The closing price of SA2601 was 1,226 yuan/ton, up 1.49%; the trading volume was 1,542,782 lots, and the position decreased by 29,768 lots [64]. - Analysis: The coal price rises, the supply decreases slightly, the downstream demand is stable, and the short - term market is expected to be firm [64]. LPG and Propylene - Market Trends: For LPG, the demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high; for propylene, the supply - demand gap narrows, and there is short - term support [67][68]. - Data: The closing price of PG2512 was 4,323 yuan/ton, up 1.19%; the closing price of PL2601 was 5,905 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [68]. - News: On November 10, 2025, the CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant device maintenance plans [73][74]. PVC - Market Trends: The trend still faces pressure. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is under pressure [76]. - Data: The 01 - contract futures price was 4614 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4520 yuan/ton, the basis was - 94, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread was - 295 [76]. - Analysis: The "using soda to supplement chlorine" pattern in the profit chain is difficult to sustain, and the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [76]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Trends: Fuel oil shows a short - term oscillating trend, and the night - session is still weak; low - sulfur fuel oil weakens in the short - term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the external spot market rebounds slightly [79]. - Data: The closing price of FU2512 was 2,688 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the closing price of LU2512 was 3,263 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [79]. - Analysis: The market shows different trends in price, trading volume, and spread [79]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Trends: It is in an oscillating market. The futures price shows different changes, and the freight rate index also has corresponding fluctuations [81]. - Data: The closing price of EC2512 was 1,778.2, down 1.84%; the SCFIS European route index was 1,504.80, with a weekly increase of 24.5% [81]. - Analysis: The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity and freight rates [81].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251111
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-11 01:40