中辉期货：螺纹钢早报-20251111

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coils), the rating is cautiously bullish [1]. - For iron ore, the suggestion is to stop loss on short positions [1]. - For coke, the rating is cautiously bullish [1]. - For coking coal, the rating is cautiously bullish [1]. - For ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, the rating is cautiously bullish [1]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel products are testing cost support after continuous decline. Rebar shows a supply - demand weakening in the off - season, with inventory decline slower than seasonal rules. Hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure with reverse - seasonal inventory increase [3][4]. - Iron ore has supply shrinkage, accumulating contradictions, and short - term price firmness due to expected iron - water production recovery, increased steel mill maintenance information, and reduced foreign ore arrivals [7][8]. - Coke market starts the fourth price increase. Although coke enterprises' profits improve slightly but are still mostly in losses. With iron - water production decline and low raw material inventory, short - term restocking enthusiasm is okay [10][11]. - Coking coal's supply is affected by safety and environmental inspections, with low coal mine inventory and sufficient pre - orders. Seasonal decline in iron - water production restricts upward space, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is healthy [13][14]. - For ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, the November steel procurement has started. Ferromanganese supply is slightly down but still high, and inventory increase slows. Ferrosilicon's production area's operating rate increases, and inventory rises significantly [16][17]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Variety View: Rebar has a weak supply - demand in the off - season with production and apparent demand decreasing, and inventory decline slower than seasonal rules. Iron - water production decline weakens support for raw materials. Hot - rolled coils have falling production and apparent demand, and reverse - seasonal inventory increase shows inventory pressure [4]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Rebar is testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels. Hot - rolled coils will operate in a medium - term range and may fluctuate after continuous decline [5]. - Price Data: Futures, spot prices, basis, and price spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils are provided, showing price changes and relationships [2]. Iron Ore - Variety View: Iron - water production is expected to rise with some blast furnace restarts. Steel mill maintenance information increases, and foreign ore arrivals shrink. Static fundamentals are neutral - bullish, and short - term price is firm [8]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Stop loss on short positions [9]. - Price Data: Futures, spot prices, basis, price spreads, freight rates, and spot indices of iron ore are presented, showing price changes and market conditions [6]. Coke - Variety View: The coke market starts the fourth price increase. Coke enterprises' profits improve slightly but are still mostly in losses. With iron - water production decline and low raw material inventory, short - term restocking enthusiasm is okay, and it follows coking coal price to operate in a range [11]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [12]. - Price Data: Futures, spot prices, weekly data on production, inventory, and profit of coke are provided, showing market changes [10]. Coking Coal - Variety View: Supply is affected by safety and environmental inspections, with low coal mine inventory and sufficient pre - orders. Seasonal decline in iron - water production restricts upward space, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is healthy, with price expected to operate in a range [14]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [15]. - Price Data: Futures, spot prices, weekly data on production, inventory, and operating rate of coking coal are given, showing market conditions [13]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - Variety View: Ferromanganese supply is slightly down but still high, and inventory increase slows. Ferrosilicon's production area's operating rate increases, and inventory rises significantly. The November steel procurement has started, and attention should be paid to the final pricing [17]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [18]. - Price Data: Futures, spot prices, basis, price spreads, and weekly data on production, inventory, and operating rate of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are presented, showing market changes [16].