中泰期货晨会纪要-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, trend - bearish varieties include zinc; shock - bearish varieties include egg, plastic, methanol; shock varieties include soda ash, glass, asphalt, etc.; shock - bullish varieties include lithium carbonate, apple; trend - bullish varieties are not mentioned [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, bearish varieties include corn, PTA, glass, etc.; shock varieties include coking coal, hot - rolled coil, etc.; bullish varieties include methanol, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News - The US suspends the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year. China suspends the special port fees for US ships and anti - countermeasures against 5 US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. for one year. China adds the US, Mexico, and Canada to the export control list of precursor chemicals [6]. - The US Senate passes a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, but the final vote time is not arranged, and the bill still needs to be voted by the House of Representatives. The US government shutdown may end before this weekend [6]. - The State Council issues measures to promote private investment, including encouraging private capital to participate in the construction and operation of small - scale urban infrastructure projects [6]. - The Asset Management Association solicits opinions on the management guidelines for the investment style of public - offering theme funds to regulate style drift [7]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issues compliance tips for the "Double Eleven" online promotion, banning illegal acts such as "big data price discrimination" [7]. - The US and Thailand reach a reciprocal trade framework agreement. Thailand cancels 99% of tariff barriers, and the US maintains a 19% reciprocal tariff [7]. - Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US to reduce tariffs on Swiss goods to 15% [7]. - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts. San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests discussing further rate cuts with an "open mind" [8]. - In October, US container imports were 2.31 million TEU, down 7.5% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month. November and December imports are expected to decline [8]. - The new Japanese government asks the central bank to postpone interest rate hikes until at least January next year, but the central bank may raise rates as early as December [8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a shock - rising strategy and pay attention to the style switch between IH and IC. The A - share market shows differentiation, with inflation data better than expected and export decline affected by high - base and holiday factors [10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy implementation is in the realization period, and bonds still have upward momentum. Pay attention to the rhythm. The market digests inflation data, and bonds show a strong trend. The decline in exports is affected by multiple factors, and moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented [12]. Black Steel and Iron Ore - In the short term, the black market will be in shock consolidation, and in the medium term (winter), it will maintain a short - on - rallies strategy. Policy events are basically settled, and the industry will return to fundamentals. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is okay. Steel mills' profits are low, and iron ore and other raw material prices are weak [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of mine inspections and downstream molten iron output. In the short term, molten iron output may decline, and coking coal supply is restricted. However, weak steel demand in the off - season and potential negative feedback will limit price increases [16][17]. Ferroalloys - In the long - term, the oversupply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is difficult to ease. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. In the short - term, also take a short - on - rallies approach, but be cautious due to the firm performance of manganese ore and rising lanthanum charcoal prices [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Glass prices are weak, and soda ash prices are strong. Glass enterprises reduce prices after poor sales, and some soda ash plants raise prices due to cost increases and production cuts [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. Domestic zinc inventories slightly increase, and zinc prices are high due to inventory fluctuations and macro - positive factors. Downstream demand is cautious, and spot trading is mainly among traders [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals are good, but there is an expectation of weakening demand in Q1 next year. After the price correction, consider buying on dips [21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradiction and will fluctuate within a range. Polysilicon's price is supported by spot prices, and its upper limit depends on capacity merger policies. It will also fluctuate within a narrow range [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices will fluctuate at a low level. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The end of the US government shutdown is beneficial for market confidence. Pay attention to USDA reports [28]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from supply expectations but supported by production costs. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy before new sugar supply increases significantly. Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [30]. Eggs - Egg futures are strong due to "capacity reduction" expectations, but the premium over spot may limit the upside. Spot prices may be strong in November but with limited upside. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short near - month contracts [33]. Apples - Apple prices will fluctuate strongly. The apple storage season is nearly over, and inventory is lower than last year. Pay attention to price trends and post - storage sales [35]. Corn - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the upside pressure on the futures. Corn prices have rebounded, but supply pressure is still accumulating. Pay attention to new - grain sales progress and wheat policy [36]. Red Dates - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Weak spot sales in the distribution area drag down new - jujube ordering prices, and the futures fluctuate [38]. Pigs - Supply pressure continues, and demand is average. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for near - month contracts and control positions. Supply is high, and short - term sales pressure remains [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. EIA inventories are increasing, and there is an expectation of supply surplus in Q1 next year. OPEC+ slows down production increases, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance remains [41]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. Supply is loose, and demand is weak. The focus is on supply concerns after sanctions on Russia [43]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure, but production losses may provide some support [44]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. Consider going long on dips with stop - losses. Pay attention to the spread between RU and NR [45]. Synthetic Rubber - Be cautious about going long on synthetic rubber. It may continue to fluctuate weakly due to raw material drag. Pay attention to downstream procurement and macro - sentiment [46]. Methanol - Methanol prices fluctuate greatly. Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for near - month contracts and wait for a long - entry opportunity for far - month contracts after a rebound driver appears [47]. Caustic Soda - Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy for caustic soda and consider going long on dips. Spot prices are stable, and futures prices are affected by coking coal prices [49]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The focus is on the price bottom after winter - storage games. Crude oil prices are stable, and asphalt demand is entering the end - stage [50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected device changes. PX supply is stable, PTA supply pressure may ease, and ethylene glycol inventory is high [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - In the long - term, adopt a short strategy for LPG. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to the approaching peak demand season [53]. Pulp - Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for pulp. Fundamentals are stable, and the upside space is limited [53]. Logs - Log prices are expected to be under pressure. Fundamentals are weakly balanced, and inventory is expected to increase [54]. Urea - Operate according to policies and pay attention to basis pressure. Adopt a wide - range fluctuation strategy. Spot prices are rising, but the follow - up power is insufficient [54].