黑色建材日报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with risks still existing in hot - rolled coil inventory, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. Future steel consumption may gradually recover, and although short - term demand is weak, there may be an inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [2] - For iron ore, affected by environmental protection restrictions and declining steel mill profits, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. In the short term, ore prices will run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] - Regarding the black sector, it is considered that short - term "negative feedback" trading is a temporary shock, and it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities after corrections. The subsequent price increase depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [9][10] - For manganese silicon, pay attention to the situation of manganese ore. If the black sector strengthens, it may be driven by manganese ore. For silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10] - For industrial silicon, supply and demand are weak, and prices are expected to consolidate, waiting for new drivers [13][14] - For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking may be limited. Pay attention to the progress of the platform company [16] - For glass, the market lacks fundamental support, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [19] - For soda ash, the market has both long and short factors, and prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3044 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.329%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 9143 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 37153 lots. In the spot market, the Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices remained unchanged [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3252 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.215%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 894 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 19517 lots. The Shanghai aggregated price increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the Lecong aggregated price remained unchanged [1] Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Steel demand has entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. Future demand may recover gradually [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 765.00 yuan/ton, up 0.59% (+4.50). The positions decreased by 17806 lots to 54.16 million lots. The weighted positions were 96.85 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.11% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, with Vale and Rio Tinto contributing to the reduction. Non - mainstream country shipments increased, and the near - end arrival volume decreased. Demand: The average daily hot metal output decreased by 2.14 tons to 234.22 tons. Environmental protection restrictions in Hebei had a significant impact, and many steel mills increased maintenance. Inventory: Port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory also rose. In general, the fundamentals are weak, and short - term prices will run weakly [5] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 10, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 1.04% at 5820 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 1.12% at 5588 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 12 yuan/ton over the futures. Manganese silicon is in the 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton range, and silicon iron is in the 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton range [7][8] Strategy Views - The market is currently in a "negative feedback" trading situation, but it is considered a temporary shock. It may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities after corrections. Manganese silicon lacks a clear main contradiction, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Silicon iron has no obvious supply - demand contradiction and follows the cost of electricity, with low operability [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9290 yuan/ton, up 0.76% (+70). The weighted positions increased by 4310 lots to 440038 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton [12] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 53720 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+505). The weighted positions decreased by 6367 lots to 222392 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [15] Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, production increased in October, and supply pressure may ease in November. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to consolidate [13][14] - For polysilicon, production will decline in November and December, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Pay attention to the progress of the platform company [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-22). The Huabei large - plate price decreased by 20 yuan, and the Huazhong price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 265.40 million cases (-4.03%). The top 20 long - position holders increased positions by 107545 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased positions by 125534 lots [18] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton, up 1.32% (+16). The Shahe heavy - alkali price increased by 16 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 1.22 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased positions by 13469 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased positions by 26458 lots [20] Strategy Views - The glass market lacks fundamental support, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [19] - The soda ash market has both long and short factors, and prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [21]