铅锌日评：沪铅高位整理，沪锌或有回调-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and the import window is open, improving the supply shortage. Thus, there is significant upward pressure on lead prices. It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, the back structure of LME zinc has weakened, reducing overseas structural risks. Zinc prices lack continuous upward momentum. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities brought by the rebound of the SHFE - LME ratio. In the medium - term, the mine end will tighten in the fourth quarter, and TC is likely to fall, which may affect the supply side and provide some support for zinc prices. It is advisable to wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.29% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract rose by 0.49% [1]. - Market Conditions: The import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with small fluctuations in primary lead production. The operation rate of recycled lead refineries has recovered to over 50%, increasing supply. The terminal market has improved, and the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is acceptable, increasing demand. However, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened [1]. - Investment Strategy: Continue to hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.31% compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc main contract fell by 0.22%. The premium of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - Market Conditions: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased to 2,650 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 98.37 US dollars/dry ton. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an expected monthly output of about 600,000 tons. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - Investment Strategy: Wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1].