宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年11月11日）-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several commodity futures in the agricultural products sector, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil. It analyzes the driving factors and market conditions for each variety [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [5][6]. - Core Logic: Market expects China to resume purchasing US soybeans, and there is uncertainty in Brazilian production area weather, driving up US soybean futures prices. China's soybean arrivals are expected to decrease monthly, alleviating long - term supply pressure. However, current soybean meal inventory is high, and downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with demand not expected to increase significantly. The market is waiting for the USDA report and China's actual purchase of US soybeans to determine the price breakthrough direction, leading to increased short - term price volatility at high levels [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [7]. - Core Logic: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil end - of - month inventory increased by 4.44% month - on - month to 2.4645 million tons, slightly higher than expected, indicating supply pressure. But exports increased by 18.58% month - on - month to 1.6929 million tons, exceeding expectations, which alleviated market pessimism. However, high - frequency data showed that exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.3% month - on - month, casting a shadow on future demand. Overall, the fundamental situation of palm oil has not changed, and short - term rebound space is limited [7]. Soybean Oil 2601 - Viewpoints: Short - term, medium - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - Core Logic: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. Palm 2601 - Viewpoints: Short - term is "weak", medium - term is "oscillating", intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - Core Logic: Affected by its biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].