宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年11月11日）-20251111

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillation and consolidation. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation and consolidation. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data, the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward space of Treasury bond futures is limited. In the long term, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is generally loose, and Treasury bond futures have strong support. Overall, Treasury bond futures will maintain an oscillatory and consolidatory state in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillation and consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, and the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation and consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range yesterday. As market interest rates declined, the upward space of Treasury bond futures was limited. In the short term, the strong resilience of macro - economic data reduced the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts. In the long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy is generally loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term [5].