Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Macro: The potential end of the US government shutdown boosts risk appetite. Domestically, policies encourage private investment, with the A - share market showing a narrow - range upward trend. The short - term market may reach new highs but needs to be cautious about subsequent adjustments. The bond market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - Precious Metals: Weak US economic data strengthens the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, leading to a strong rebound in gold and silver prices. There is a possibility of continued short - term rebounds, but caution is still needed [4][5]. - Copper: The expected reopening of the US government boosts market sentiment. With a tight global copper mine supply pattern and continuous decline in domestic refined copper production, copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [6][7]. - Aluminum: The progress of the US Senate in restarting the federal government increases market risk appetite. Although there is a slight accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot inventory, supply disturbances overseas and capital inflows support the upward trend of aluminum prices [8][9]. - Alumina: The market supply is relatively abundant, and the social inventory continues to increase, so alumina prices continue to be weak [10]. - Cast Aluminum: The cost support is strong, and the supply and demand are in a good state. It is expected to follow the upward trend of aluminum prices [11]. - Zinc: The possible resumption of the US government operation boosts market sentiment. Although the supply is limited due to refinery overhauls, weak consumption restricts the upward space of zinc prices. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [12]. - Lead: The upward breakthrough of LME lead and the increase in domestic inventory due to delivery support lead prices. It is expected to remain at a high level in the short term [13][14]. - Tin: The expected end of the US government shutdown is beneficial to tin prices, but the marginal weakening of the fundamentals restricts the upward space. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [15]. - Industrial Silicon: Entering the dry season in the southwest, production decreases. With the improvement of market sentiment, industrial silicon prices are expected to be strong in the short term [16][17]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term supply increase is limited, and the inventory is being depleted, driving up prices. However, the risk of a weakening long - term fundamental needs to be noted, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [18][19]. - Nickel: The expected end of the US government shutdown may boost market sentiment. With strong cost support and signs of bottom - building, nickel prices may rebound [20]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Both face weak demand pressure, and prices may fluctuate at a low level [21]. - Steel (Screw and Coil): Due to the weakening demand in the north, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [22][23]. - Iron Ore: With a decrease in arrivals and shipments and weak downstream demand, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [24]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply of coking coal is shrinking, and the fourth round of coke price increases has not been implemented. Affected by the weak steel market, the price increase space is limited, with short - term minor adjustments and medium - term expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [25]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The possible end of the US government shutdown may lead to the adjustment of soybean meal futures. Short - term fluctuations are expected [27][28]. - Palm Oil: The MPOB report shows an increase in inventory, and the high - frequency export data in early November decreases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29][30]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - Copper: SHFE copper closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.63%; LME copper closed at 10,875 dollars/ton, up 1.68% [31]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME aluminum closed at 2,881 dollars/ton, up 0.65% [31]. - Alumina: SHFE alumina closed at 2,829 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [31]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 0.22%; LME zinc closed at 3,086 dollars/ton, up 0.62% [31]. - Lead: SHFE lead closed at 17,505 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; LME lead closed at 2,057 dollars/ton, up 0.56% [31]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel closed at 119,680 yuan/ton, up 0.20%; LME nickel closed at 15,100 dollars/ton, up 0.53% [31]. - Tin: SHFE tin closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.08%; LME tin closed at 36,180 dollars/ton, up 1.01% [31]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold closed at 4,123.40 dollars/ounce, up 2.88%; SHFE silver closed at 11,719.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.05%; COMEX silver closed at 50.41 dollars/ounce, up 4.52% [31]. - Steel: SHFE rebar closed at 3,044 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,252 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [31]. - Iron Ore: DCE iron ore closed at 765.0 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: DCE coking coal closed at 1,265.5 yuan/ton, down 0.35%; DCE coke closed at 1,743.5 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [31]. - Industrial Silicon: GFEX industrial silicon closed at 9,290.0 yuan/ton, up 0.76% [31]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: CBOT soybeans closed at 1,127.5 yuan/ton, up 0.92%; DCE soybean meal closed at 3,063.0 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,527.0 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [31]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - Copper: SHFE copper main contract price increased from 85,940 yuan/ton on November 7th to 86,480 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME copper inventory increased by 375 tons to 136,275 tons [32]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel main contract price increased from 119,440 yuan/ton on November 7th to 119,680 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME nickel inventory increased by 300 tons to 253,404 tons [32]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc main contract price decreased from 22,720 yuan/ton on November 7th to 22,670 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME zinc inventory remained at 34,900 tons [35]. - Lead: SHFE lead main contract price increased from 17,420 yuan/ton on November 7th to 17,505 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 202,200 tons [35]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum continuous third - month contract price increased from 21,630 yuan/ton on November 7th to 21,725 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 547,225 tons [35]. - Alumina: SHFE alumina main contract price increased from 2,783 yuan/ton on November 7th to 2,829 yuan/ton on November 10th; the national average spot price of alumina decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 2,871 yuan/ton [35]. - Tin: SHFE tin main contract price increased from 283,510 yuan/ton on November 7th to 286,560 yuan/ton on November 10th; LME tin inventory remained at 3,035 tons [35]. - Precious Metals: There was no change in the prices of SHFE gold, COMEX gold, SHFE silver, and COMEX silver on November 10th compared to November 7th [35]. - Steel: SHFE rebar main contract price increased from 3,034 yuan/ton on November 7th to 3,044 yuan/ton on November 10th; SHFE hot - rolled coil main contract price increased from 3,245 yuan/ton on November 7th to 3,252 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - Iron Ore: DCE iron ore main contract price increased from 760.5 yuan/ton on November 7th to 765.0 yuan/ton on November 10th; the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased from 773 yuan/ton on November 7th to 775 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - Coking Coal and Coke: DCE coking coal main contract price decreased from 1,270.0 yuan/ton on November 7th to 1,265.5 yuan/ton on November 10th; DCE coke main contract price decreased from 1,756.5 yuan/ton on November 7th to 1,743.5 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract price of lithium carbonate increased from 8,046 yuan/ton on November 7th to 8,450 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract price of industrial silicon increased from 9,220 yuan/ton on November 7th to 9,290 yuan/ton on November 10th [37]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: CBOT soybean main contract price increased from 1,117.25 yuan/ton on November 7th to 1,127.5 yuan/ton on November 10th; DCE soybean meal main contract price increased from 3,058 yuan/ton on November 7th to 3,063 yuan/ton on November 10th; CZCE rapeseed meal main contract price decreased from 2,539 yuan/ton on November 7th to 2,527 yuan/ton on November 10th [37].
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251111
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-11 02:03