中辉期货品种策略日报-20251111

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The sentiment for soybean meal is bullish, but there is a lack of obvious bullish drivers, so it should be treated as a short - term bullish technical play [1]. - The sentiment for rapeseed meal is also bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1]. - Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, and the price is in a low - level consolidation [1]. - Soybean oil is in a short - term consolidation, with a lack of strong bullish drivers [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short - term [1]. - Cotton prices are under upward pressure, but there may be short - term low - buying opportunities [1]. - The outlook for red dates is cautiously bearish, with the disk expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - The outlook for live pigs is a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts [1]. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - Brazil's rainfall in the next 15 days is expected to be slightly lower than normal. The sales pressure of spot oil mills has decreased, and they have a price - supporting mentality. The US - China tariff issue on soybean imports remains unresolved. The latest weekly inventory has decreased month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3104 yuan/ton, up 6.29 yuan or 0.20% [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - The port inventory of rapeseed meal is high, and it is the off - season for downstream consumption, which puts pressure on the market. Canada's inability to cancel tariffs on China has cooled the market's expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade tariffs. The futures price of the main contract closed at 2527 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2617.37 yuan/ton, down 9.47 yuan or 0.36% [1][5]. Palm Oil - Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, with expected continuous inventory accumulation in October and November in Malaysia. However, the inverted import profit may lead to insufficient imports in December and January. The futures price of the main contract closed at 8690 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day. The national average price is 8688 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.67% [1][8]. Cotton - In the international market, the increased supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries puts pressure on prices, while India's MSP provides some support. In the domestic market, the new cotton harvest is almost complete, and the commercial inventory is higher than the same period in previous years. The downstream demand is weak, but the sales progress is relatively fast, which may relieve the hedging pressure faster than in previous years. The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1][10]. Red Dates - The market has seen a large - scale harvest, and the new - season output is gradually becoming clear. With high - inventory old dates, the downstream acceptance of new products is limited. The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9585 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [1][14]. Live Pigs - In November, the planned slaughter volume has slightly decreased, but there is still some pressure due to weight gain. The supply pressure is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. The futures price of the main contract (lh2601) closed at 11955 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.76% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 12020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08% [1][17].