工业硅：重心上移，多晶硅：进入政策真空期，盘面交易供需逻辑

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The center of the industrial silicon market is expected to move upward, and the polysilicon market has entered a policy vacuum period, with the market trading based on supply - demand logic [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For the industrial silicon Si2601 contract, the closing price is 9,290 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 365,749 lots, and the open interest is 281,503 lots. For the polysilicon PS2601 contract, the closing price is 53,720 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 218,786 lots, and the open interest is 125,974 lots [2] - Basis Data: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +210 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) is - 1720 yuan/ton [2] - Price Data: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8850 yuan/ton, the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon N - type re - investment material is 52200 yuan/ton [2] - Profit Data: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 1979.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 7.6 yuan/kg [2] - Inventory Data: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.2 million tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 17.2 million tons, and the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 25.9 million tons [2] - Raw Material Cost Data: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, the price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang is 1475 yuan/ton, and the price of graphite electrodes is 12450 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Shuoqi industrial silicon production project in Zhengxiangbai Banner Mingantu Industrial Park has officially started construction. With a total investment of 500 million yuan, it is designed to produce 2.86 million tons of industrial silicon annually and is planned to be fully completed and put into use in 2026 [2][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]