资讯早班车-2025-11-11-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic recovery has many setbacks, with slow balance - sheet repair in the real economy. Super - conventional monetary and fiscal policies to manage inflation expectations may promote balance - sheet repair [29]. - In the bond market, credit spread compression is in the second half, and the year - end market may shift to medium - and long - term credit bonds. Credit bonds should focus on structural opportunities [29]. - In the bond market's oscillations, it's necessary to balance credit bond coupons and individual bond liquidity, and pay attention to the possibility of further overall easing [29]. - After the slowdown of gold price increase and the weakening of low - base and fiscal subsidy factors, core inflation may gradually decline, and the low - inflation pattern in China may continue. Monetary policy may push down nominal interest rates, and the domestic bond market is expected to perform well [30]. - The price of goods is bottoming out and recovering, which is positive for the stock market in the long - term, but the impact on the bond market needs further observation [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP growth was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, down from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up [1]. - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% respectively. The new RMB loans in September were 1290 billion yuan [1]. - In October 2025, CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was - 1.1%, and that of imports was 1.0% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US suspended the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year. China suspended relevant fees and anti - countermeasures and adjusted the export management of precursor chemicals [2]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange waived trading fees for certain international board contracts from November 11, 2025, to the end of 2026 [2]. - On November 10, 2025, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 31 had negative basis [2]. - The CSRC approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options, which will increase the number of market varieties to 164 [3]. - After a 40 - day government shutdown, the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the government shutdown may end this weekend [3]. - Fed's Daly believes that inflation in commodity prices is under control, and the current policy is in a good state [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On November 10, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 430 yuan to 80,800 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium hydroxide rose by 130 yuan to 75,700 yuan/ton [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682,730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. Gold ETFs increased their positions by 79,015 tons, a year - on - year increase of 164.03% [5]. - Ganfeng Lithium's project in Argentina made key progress, with proven + controlled lithium resources of about 15.07 million tons of LCE [5]. - After Trump supported the government shutdown agreement, aluminum and copper prices rose. Chile's copper production in September decreased by 7.2% year - on - year [6][7]. - J.P. Morgan Private Bank believes that gold prices may exceed $5000 per ounce next year, driven by central bank purchases in emerging economies [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Multiple provinces and cities issued pollution prevention plans for the autumn and winter, involving steel production regulation [9]. - Affected by factors such as the continuous decline of steel enterprises' purchase prices of molybdenum iron, the prices of molybdenum products decreased, but market trading volume increased [10]. - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease from the previous month [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the seventh time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively [12]. - Two departments issued a guidance on promoting new energy consumption and regulation, aiming to build a new - energy consumption and regulation system by 2030 and 2035 [12]. - From November 8 - 10, 2025, Sinopec's Tianjin LNG receiving terminal unloaded about 160,000 tons of LNG, ensuring heating supply in North China [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In Shanxi, autumn grain harvesting is almost finished, and wheat sowing is progressing. As of November 7, over 70% of the wheat has been sown [14]. - The market is stable macro - economically, and the resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US enterprises has improved the export prospects of US soybeans, but future imports are still uncertain [14]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 10, 2025, the central bank conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 41.6 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - The US suspended the 301 investigation on China for one year, and China made corresponding adjustments [16]. - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, which still needs House approval [17]. - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment, and ten departments released a plan to promote logistics data sharing [17]. - The 8th China International Import Expo closed with a record - high intended transaction volume of $83.49 billion, a 4.4% increase from the previous session [18]. - Central enterprises increased investment in key areas in the first three quarters, with fixed - asset investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan, a growth of over 3% [18]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue local government debt quotas in advance, and many places have started project reserve work for 2026 [18]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, while the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger cars increased by 18.5% [18]. - In Shenzhen, the number of second - hand housing transactions has remained above 5000 for 8 consecutive months [19]. - The Ministry of Finance will issue up to 47.71 billion yuan of electronic savings bonds from November 10 - 19, 2025 [19]. - Hong Kong plans to issue multi - currency digital bonds for the third time [19]. - Some small and medium - sized banks have adjusted long - term deposit products due to the downward trend of net interest margins [20]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that Trump's proposed $2000 tariff dividend could be achieved through tax cuts [20]. - Japan's new government asked the central bank to postpone interest rate hikes, but the central bank may raise rates in December [20]. - There are bond - related events such as self - discipline punishments, full redemptions, and senior management investigations [21][22]. - Some overseas companies received credit rating confirmations or new ratings [22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened with long - term bonds performing better. Bond futures mostly rose, and the money market tightened [23]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke's bonds generally fell, while some other bonds rose [23]. - The convertible bond index rose, and the money market interest rates mostly went up [24]. - Bond issuance and trading data showed different trends, and overseas bond yields also changed [26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 50 basis points at the 16:30 close, and the central parity rate was depreciated by 20 basis points [27]. - The US dollar index rose 0.07%, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that super - conventional policies may promote balance - sheet repair in the real economy [29]. - Guosheng Fixed - Income expects the bond market to decline further from November - December, and credit bonds should focus on structural opportunities [29]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income emphasizes balancing credit bond coupons and individual bond liquidity [29]. - CICC Fixed - Income expects core inflation to gradually weaken, and is optimistic about the domestic bond market [30]. - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the central bank's future bond - buying scale [30]. - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that prices are bottoming out, which is positive for stocks and needs further observation for bonds [31]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The Asset Management Association of China solicited opinions on the management guidelines for the thematic investment styles of public funds [33]. - On Monday, the A - share market showed a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.92% [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.55%, and southbound funds' cumulative net purchases exceeded HK$5 trillion [34]. - The China Securities Index Company will release two new indices on November 11, 2025 [34].