宁证期货今日早评-20251111

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is an early - morning assessment on various commodities and financial products released on November 11, 2025 by the Investment Consulting Center of Ningzheng Futures Co., Ltd. [1][2][3] Group 2: Commodity - Specific Analyses Iron Ore - From November 3rd to 9th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 2769.3 thousand tons, a decrease of 544.8 thousand tons compared to the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2741.2 thousand tons, a decrease of 477.2 thousand tons; and the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1525.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 60.1 thousand tons. Iron ore shipments are at a high level in the same period of history, iron - water production continues to decline, steel - mill profitability shrinks again, and the demand for iron ore continues to weaken. It is expected that the iron - ore price will run weakly. It is recommended to short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies. [1] Gold - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest - rate cuts to prevent the weakening of the US economy and advocates a faster rate - cut pace than the traditional 25 - basis - point cuts. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but inflation related to tariffs is currently under control. The US government shutdown is expected to end this week. Fed officials are open to rate cuts, but there are still internal differences. The US dollar index has limited upward momentum. Precious metals may fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term. [1] Rebar - On November 10th, the domestic steel - market price fluctuated weakly. The ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 10 yuan to 2940 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The coking - coal supply and demand remain in a tight - balance state, and coke has started the fourth round of price increases. The coal - coke market remains strong, while the prices of iron ore and scrap steel are weak. The demand for steel in the off - season continues to be weak, and the number of loss - making and production - reducing steel mills is increasing. The steel price is restricted by weak demand, but due to high costs and an expanding loss - making area for steel mills, the decline in steel prices may also be limited. In the short term, the steel price may adjust within a narrow range. [3] Coke - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is - 22 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, the average profit for quasi - first - grade coke is - 20 yuan/ton, in Shandong it is 39 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia it is - 78 yuan/ton, and in Hebei it is 19 yuan/ton. The fourth round of price increases has started, and coking profits have slightly recovered, but due to environmental - protection production restrictions in Hebei, the overall coke production has declined. On the demand side, some steel mills in Tangshan and other places are restricted in production due to environmental - protection requirements, and some steel mills in North and Northwest China are under profit pressure and have actively reduced production and carried out maintenance. The iron - water production continues to decline. Overall, the profits of both upstream and downstream of coke are not good. Considering the off - season and environmental - protection factors, both supply and demand are weak. The cost support for coke is relatively strong. With the continuous procurement enthusiasm of steel mills, the fourth - round price increase still has the expectation of being implemented. It is expected that the coke price will fluctuate. [4] Live Pigs - On November 10th, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.58, an increase of 0.34 points from last Friday, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.66, an increase of 0.39 points from last Friday. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural - product wholesale market was 18.13 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5% from last Friday. The slaughter rhythm of live pigs by farmers has slightly slowed down, and farmers still have the sentiment of resisting price cuts when selling pigs, but the terminal demand fails to keep up. Slaughtering enterprises can smoothly purchase pigs, and there is insufficient upward momentum. In the short term, there is still downward pressure, and the price will fluctuate at the bottom. Farmers can hedge according to the slaughter rhythm. [5] Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) reported that the palm - oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of October increased by 4.4% from the previous month to 2.46 million tons. In October, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia increased by 11.02% from the previous month to 2.04 million tons, and the export volume increased by 18.58% to 1.69 million tons. The MPOB report is basically in line with expectations, and the negative factors have been priced in. However, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from the 1st to the 10th decreased significantly month - on - month, suppressing the market. Concerns arise due to poor exports from the producing areas. Attention should be paid to the production situation in November. If the production - reduction expectation can be realized, the inventory pressure will be relieved. In the short term, it is expected that the palm - oil price will fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. [5] Soybeans - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, while the soybean - meal inventory decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.6195 million tons, an increase of 511.6 thousand tons or 7.20% from the previous week, and an increase of 2.0156 million tons or 35.97% compared to the same period last year. The soybean - meal inventory was 998.6 thousand tons, a decrease of 154.4 thousand tons or 13.39% from the previous week, and an increase of 191.1 thousand tons or 23.67% compared to the same period last year. The selling price of new domestic soybeans is rising steadily, and the market acquisition enthusiasm is high. Grain - trading enterprises are reluctant to sell, but the price is suppressed to some extent by downstream demand. In the short term, the price of domestic soybeans (Bean 1) will fluctuate strongly at a high level. Supported by the macro - trade sentiment, the price of imported soybeans (Bean 2) will fluctuate with an upward bias. Attention should be paid to macro - news. [6] Short - Term Treasury Bonds - Most money - market interest rates have risen. The weighted average interest rate of the 1 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase increased by 15.21 basis points to 1.4842%, reaching a new high in more than a month; the 7 - day rate increased by 8.63 basis points to 1.4993%, the 14 - day rate increased by 3.23 basis points to 1.5042%, and the 1 - month rate increased by 0.45 basis points to 1.4845%. Tightening of the capital market is negative for the short - end bond market. The central bank's open - market bond trading and continuous short - term liquidity injection are positive for the bond market. With loose liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market bond trading, the operation of the bond market becomes more difficult. In the medium term, the bond market will fluctuate. [7] Silver - After a 40 - day government shutdown, the US Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary appropriation bill to end the shutdown, but the Senate has not scheduled a final vote time, and the bill still needs to be voted on by the House of Representatives. It is possible that the US government shutdown will end before this weekend. The approaching end of the government shutdown has significantly boosted risk appetite. The silver price has risen sharply. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a divergence in the medium - term trends of silver and gold. The silver price will fluctuate with an upward bias. [7] Crude Oil - The EIA predicts that the global liquid - fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and by another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. Non - OPEC+ countries will increase production by 2 million barrels per day in 2025, 300 thousand barrels per day higher than the previous forecast, and by 700 thousand barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ crude - oil production is expected to increase by 500 thousand barrels per day in 2025 and by 600 thousand barrels per day in 2026. The average US crude - oil production in 2025 and 2026 is predicted to reach 13.5 million barrels per day, with the 2026 forecast increased by 200 thousand barrels per day compared to last month. The floating oil storage in the Asia - Pacific region reached a peak of 53 million barrels at the end of October, the highest in three years. The news that the US government shutdown is expected to end has injected some optimism into the market, and the crude - oil price rose overnight. Overall, the crude - oil price will still face downward pressure in the remaining period of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in Russia's production and exports. The crude - oil price will be treated with a weak - fluctuation view. [8] Rubber - The price of raw - material rubber latex in Thailand is 56.3 Thai baht/kg (stable), and the price of cup lump is not available. In Hainan, the price of rubber latex for producing whole - milk rubber and concentrated latex is 16,100 yuan/ton. In the third quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement - tire market decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 63.984 million pieces. Thailand's rubber production in September 2025 was 451.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.78% year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to September was 3.2425 million tons, a cumulative increase of 3.11%. Thailand's rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1% to 4.86 million tons. The natural - rubber inventory has increased this period, and the domestic raw - material inventory is at a low level. Since September, the export volume of passenger - car tires to the EU has returned to the 2023 level. With the gradual implementation of the EU's "anti - dumping and counter - vailing" policies, the shipping pressure on domestic enterprises has further increased. At the same time, tire enterprises still face shipment pressure, which will restrict the improvement of overall capacity utilization. Overall, there is a lack of substantial positive factors on the demand side, especially the decline in the synthetic - rubber price, which has widened the price difference and affected the natural - rubber market. The rubber price will be treated with a weak - fluctuation view. [9] PX - The operating rates of PX in Asia and China have increased to high levels. The domestic PX operating rate has reached 89.8% (+2.8%), and the Asian PX operating rate has reached 80.2% (+2.1%). Domestically, it is mainly due to the restart of a maintenance device at Fujia Dahua. Overseas, the overall operation of devices is stable. The maintenance device of FCFC has restarted as planned, and the restart of a 400 - thousand - ton maintenance device of Idemitsu, originally scheduled for mid - November, has been postponed to mid - December. The overall PX supply is stable. In the short term, the PTA operating rate is maintained, and the terminal orders in October were better than expected. The polyester operating rate is maintained in the short term, and there is still support on the PX demand side. However, the PX supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively loose in November, and there is insufficient upward momentum. [10][11] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 87.79%, an increase of 1.18%. The 700 - thousand - ton/year methanol device of Yulin Kaiyue is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 74.84%, a weekly decrease of 0.43%. The inventory of sampled methanol ports in China is 1.5171 million tons, a weekly increase of 10.6 thousand tons; the inventory of sampled methanol production enterprises in China is 386.4 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 10.4 thousand tons; the orders to be delivered of sampled enterprises are 221.1 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 5.5 thousand tons. The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is relatively stable. The methanol port inventory is accumulating slightly. The提货 performance along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu is weak, and the demand in Zhejiang is stable at the rigid - demand level. The inland methanol market is weakening, and enterprise auctions are成交 smoothly. The basis of the port methanol market is stable and weak, and the negotiation and成交 are okay. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2125. It is recommended to wait and see. [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash across the country is 1264 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The weekly soda - ash production is 746.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.43%. The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 1.7142 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.72%. The operating rate of float glass is 75.92%, a weekly decrease of 0.43 percentage points. The average price of float glass across the country is 1153 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The total inventory of sampled float - glass enterprises across the country is 63.136 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.03%. The float - glass operation is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The shipment of enterprises in Shahe has slowed down, the purchasing intention of industry players has weakened, and the sales of dealers are mediocre. The price in the Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan area has also decreased. The domestic soda - ash market is fluctuating strongly. The price of light - grade soda ash is rising, the supply is slightly decreasing, enterprises are receiving new orders well, downstream demand is stable, and low - price restocking transactions are taking place. It is expected that the soda - ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the lower support at 1215. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks. [12] Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East - China drawing - grade polypropylene is 6462 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 79.44%, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day. The average operating rate of downstream industries is 53.14%, a weekly increase of 0.52 percentage points. The commercial inventory of polypropylene is 893.1 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 19.1 thousand tons. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is 720 thousand tons, an increase of 55 thousand tons compared to last week. The new maintenance of polypropylene on the supply side has offset the previous production expansion. The supply is abundant, the commercial inventory is increasing, downstream orders are slightly improving, the receiving enthusiasm is average, and the demand is slowly following up. The crude - oil price on the cost side is relatively stable. It is expected that the PP 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6530. It is recommended to wait and see for further stabilization. [13]