Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are rated as bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - trading; glass is advised to sell call options [1][7][9]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading; aluminum is suggested to buy on dips; nickel is advised to wait and see or short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - trading [1][11][17][19]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash's 01 contract is recommended with a short - selling strategy [1][22][24][26][28][30][32][33][35]. - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade at a low level; apples are expected to trade weakly; jujubes are expected to decline [1][38][39]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; eggs are restricted in upward movement; corn is expected to bottom out; soybean meal is expected to trade within a range; oils are expected to bottom out and rebound [1][41][43][46][48][49]. Core Views - The global risk appetite is strengthening, and domestic favorable policies are introduced, which may boost the domestic market sentiment, and the index futures may run with a bullish bias. The bond market lacks a clear core logic, and the follow - up trend depends on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions [5]. - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and demand and rising prices. The steel market has low static valuations, but the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally. The glass market has a high inventory and weak demand, and there is a risk of further weakening [7][8][10]. - The copper market has a tight supply of concentrates, but the short - term supply - demand situation has limited support for copper prices. The aluminum market has a complex supply - demand situation, and there is a risk of over - trading. The nickel market has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term [11][12][17]. - The PVC, caustic soda, and styrene markets have weak fundamentals, and the prices are expected to trade weakly. The rubber market lacks a clear driving force and is expected to trade within a range [22][23][26][27][29]. - The PTA market has a situation of inventory accumulation and low - level trading. The apple and jujube markets have weak demand and are expected to trade weakly [38][39][39]. - The pig market has a large supply in the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. The egg market has sufficient supply, and the price increase is restricted. The corn market is expected to bottom out, and the soybean meal market is expected to trade within a range. The oil market is expected to bottom out and rebound [41][43][46][48][49]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: They are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term. The end of the US government shutdown and domestic favorable policies may boost the market sentiment, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Treasury Bonds: They are expected to trade sideways. The bond market lacks a clear core logic, and the follow - up trend depends on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and the price is rising. It is recommended for range - trading [7][8]. - Rebar: The steel market has low static valuations, but the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally. It is recommended to buy on short - term declines [8]. - Glass: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to sell call options [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply of concentrates is tight, but the short - term supply - demand situation has limited support for copper prices. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading [11]. - Aluminum: The supply - demand situation is complex, and there is a risk of over - trading. It is recommended to strengthen observation [12]. - Nickel: There is an oversupply situation in the medium to long term. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - Tin: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range - trading [18][19]. - Gold and Silver: Affected by the US economic situation and interest - rate expectations, they are expected to trade within a range [19][20][21]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. It is expected to trade weakly [22][23]. - Caustic Soda: Affected by the alumina market, the price is expected to trade weakly [24][26]. - Styrene: The cost - profit situation is complex, and the price is expected to trade weakly [26][27]. - Rubber: It lacks a clear driving force and is expected to trade within a range [28][29]. - Urea: The supply has increased, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade within a range [30][31]. - Methanol: The supply is tight in some areas, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to trade within a range [32][33]. - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. The PE is expected to trade within a range, and the PP is expected to trade weakly [33][34]. - Soda Ash: The supply is in excess, and the 01 contract is recommended with a short - selling strategy [35][36][37]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Affected by global supply - demand and trade negotiations, they are expected to trade sideways [38]. - PTA: The supply - demand situation leads to inventory accumulation, and the price is expected to trade at a low level [38][39]. - Apples: The ground trading is coming to an end, and the demand in the sales area is weak. It is expected to trade weakly [39]. - Jujubes: The purchase enthusiasm is low, and the price is expected to decline [39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The supply is large in the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [41][42]. - Eggs: The supply is sufficient, and the price increase is restricted. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and trade within a range for the 01 - contract [43][44][45]. - Corn: The new grain supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to bottom out, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 positive arbitrage [46][48]. - Soybean Meal: The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the domestic market is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the basis pricing [48][49]. - Oils: The three major oils are expected to bottom out and rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [49][50][55].
期货市场交易指引：2025年11月11日-20251111
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-11 01:53