生猪：现货矛盾继续累积，短期震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the contradictions in the live - hog spot market continue to accumulate, and the market will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 12,080 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 11,600 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures Prices: The prices of live - hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,955 yuan/ton, 11,555 yuan/ton, and 12,070 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 90 yuan/ton, 90 yuan/ton, and 65 yuan/ton [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of live - hog 2601 is 75,909 lots, a decrease of 642 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 130,519 lots, a decrease of 5,241 lots from the previous day; for live - hog 2603, the trading volume is 18,458 lots, an increase of 2,883 lots, and the open interest is 108,361 lots, a decrease of 797 lots; for live - hog 2605, the trading volume is 11,068 lots, an increase of 2,154 lots, and the open interest is 61,105 lots, an increase of 555 lots [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of live - hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 125 yuan/ton, 525 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread is 400 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change, and the 3 - 5 spread values are 0, - 515, 25, 400 yuan/ton [1][4]. 3.2 Market Information In September, the national feed production of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].