白糖：产量+50万吨，消费量-20万吨

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The 25/26 sugar season shows a complex supply - demand situation globally and in China. Globally, there is a projected supply shortage, while in China, production is expected to increase and consumption may slightly decline [2][3]. - The trend intensity of sugar is -1, indicating a weak - bearish outlook [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Sugar price data: The raw sugar price is 14.26 cents/pound (YoY +0.13), the mainstream spot price is 5760 yuan/ton (YoY 0), and the futures main - contract price is 5475 yuan/ton (YoY +18). Regarding spreads, the 15 - spread is 70 yuan/ton (YoY +10), the 59 - spread is 2 yuan/ton (YoY - 3), and the mainstream spot basis is 285 yuan/ton (YoY - 18) [1]. Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information: Pay attention to China's syrup and premix import policy changes. The 25/26 sugar export quota of India is 1.5 million tons. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% YoY, and its exports in October were 4.2 million tons (YoY +13%). China imported 550,000 tons of sugar in September (+150,000 tons) [1]. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 11.7 million tons (previous value 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previous value 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar (+1.2 million tons), sold 10.48 million tons (+870,000 tons), with a cumulative sales rate of 93.9% (down 2.6 percentage points), and imported 4.63 million tons of sugar (-120,000 tons). The Guangxi Sugar Association expects Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season to be around 6.7 million tons with a declining sugar - extraction rate and unchanged sugar - cane purchase price, and the Yunnan Sugar Association expects Yunnan's production to be around 2.6 million tons [2]. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 488,000 tons in the 24/25 season. As of October 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 2.78 percentage points YoY, with cumulative sugar production of 36.02 million tons (+320,000 tons) and a cumulative MIX of 52.36% (up 3.62 percentage points YoY). ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 34.35 million tons (previous value 34.9 million tons), with 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is -1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a weak - bearish view [4].