Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The passage of the temporary appropriation bill by the US Senate has boosted investors' optimism in the non - ferrous metals market. The macro - environment has repeated expectations but overall remains stable. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, and prices will continue to fluctuate. There are opportunities for aluminum ingot price increases and low - buying opportunities for copper and tin. In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin, the prices of these metals are expected to rise [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Market Analysis - Macro - environment: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to avoid a government shutdown until January 30, 2026. The 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions are out, increasing the expectation of economic - stabilizing policies. The Fed cut interest rates in October and will end the balance - sheet lock - up process in December, but Powell said a rate cut in December is uncertain [1]. - Supply - demand situation: The raw material supply remains tight and is spreading to the smelting end. Overseas aluminum smelting faces potential disruptions. Terminal demand is slightly weak, with a decline in automobile sales growth in October and an expanded decline in air - conditioner production schedules from November to December. The current supply - demand of base metals is slightly weak, but there are expectations of tight supply [1]. 2. Individual Metal Analysis Copper - View: Copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized as inventories decline. - Information analysis: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the decision on further rate cuts in December is uncertain. The US financial system's liquidity may still be deteriorating. In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month by 2.94 tons (2.62%), and increased year - on - year by 9.63%. As of November 10, copper inventories dropped by 0.74 tons to 19.59 tons. - Main logic: Macro factors and tight liquidity in the US money market led to a short - term adjustment in copper prices. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions increased, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling rose, leading to a decline in production. On the demand side, copper spot turned to a premium, and inventory started to decline, indicating increased downstream purchasing willingness. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the medium - to - long term due to supply constraints and disruptions [7][8]. Alumina - View: The fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - Information analysis: On November 10, alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. - Main logic: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Although there are some fluctuations in high - cost production capacity and environmental factors cause disruptions, the supply contraction is not obvious, and the inventory is still increasing strongly in China [9]. Aluminum - View: Aluminum prices are fluctuating at a high level as inventories accumulate. - Information analysis: On November 10, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts increased. Some overseas aluminum plants have extended their operations, and China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased in October. - Main logic: The macro - environment is volatile. On the supply side, domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and there are marginal disruptions overseas. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, and the terminal demand is stable. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, the price center may continue to rise [10][11][12]. Aluminum Alloy - View: Aluminum alloy prices are fluctuating at a high level as scrap aluminum supply remains tight. - Information analysis: On November 10, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the automobile sales decreased slightly in October. - Main logic: The cost of scrap aluminum is strongly supported. On the supply side, there are risks of production cuts in some alloy plants. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, and the warehouse receipts are increasing. - Outlook: In the short term, prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, prices are expected to fluctuate due to uncertain policies and raw material disruptions [13][15]. Zinc - View: Zinc prices are fluctuating at a high level as the export window opens. - Information analysis: On November 10, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were negative. As of November 10, the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining. - Main logic: The macro - environment is optimistic. On the supply side, the short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelting profit is good, with high production. The export window has opened, relieving domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic consumption is entering the off - season. - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [16]. Lead - View: Lead prices are fluctuating as social inventories accumulate slightly. - Information analysis: On November 10, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of lead ingots increased slightly. The social inventory and warehouse receipts increased. - Main logic: On the supply side, the profit of secondary lead smelting increased, and the production increased. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery plants resumed production, and the demand is in the peak season. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [17][18]. Nickel - View: Nickel prices are fluctuating as the current supply - demand is loose. - Information analysis: On November 10, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia cracked down on illegal nickel mining, and there were developments in mining governance. - Main logic: Market sentiment dominates the price. The supply of nickel ore is loose, the production of intermediate products has recovered, and the inventory has accumulated. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [19][20]. Stainless Steel - View: Stainless steel prices are fluctuating and rising as warehouse receipts continue to decline. - Information analysis: The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel - iron and chromium decreased. The Indonesian government allocated funds for mining and smelting projects. - Main logic: The cost support for steel prices is weakening. The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. The social inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [21]. Tin - View: Tin prices are fluctuating at a high level as the Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline. - Information analysis: On November 10, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin increased. - Main logic: There are continuous supply disruptions in tin. The production increase in Wa State may be postponed, and there are problems in other production areas. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee is low. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [23]. 3. Market Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index), and PPI commodity index of the non - ferrous metals market all showed increases, with the increase rates being 0.65%, 0.71%, 0.48%, and 0.37% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.58% on that day, 0.85% in the past 5 days, 1.60% in the past month, and 7.76% since the beginning of the year [144][145].
美国参议院通过临时拨款法案，投资者乐观情绪提振有色
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-11 02:16