格林期货早盘提示-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel sector in the black building materials is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoint - The supply and demand of steel coils are both weak, and the price is expected to show a volatile trend. The 3000 level of rebar still has strong resilience. It is recommended to continue holding the long positions initiated around 3000, and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher on Monday and continued to rise in the night session [1] Important Information - Starting from November 10th, affected by adverse meteorological conditions, many places in Henan may experience continuous moderate pollution weather processes, and several cities have launched orange warnings for heavy pollution weather [1] - The US Trade Representative's Office announced that it will suspend the 301 investigation and restrictive measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries starting from November 10th [1] - Baowu Steel's ex-factory prices in December will remain the same as in November. The estimated tax-excluded base prices for December are 4535 yuan/ton for hot-rolled Q235B, 8431 yuan/ton for cold-rolled DC01, and 9147 yuan/ton for hot-dip galvanized DC51D+Z [1] - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government "shutdown" on November 9th, local time. The bill will provide funds for the government until January 30, 2026. The government shutdown may end before this weekend [1] - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in October were 2.242 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales of the national passenger car market were 19.25 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market in October were 1.282 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.3%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 10.151 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [1] Market Logic - On Monday, most steel coil prices remained flat, with a few declining, and the trading volume was average. During the macro policy vacuum period, the trend of steel coils depends on the fundamentals. Last week, the production of steel coils decreased. The rebar inventory decreased, and the de-stocking speed is expected to slow down as the peak season turns to the off-season. The hot-rolled coil inventory increased, showing poor inventory performance. The apparent demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased. The demand for rebar is expected to weaken further, while the demand for hot-rolled coils may not change much in the short term. On the supply side, some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance last week, and the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces decreased. This week, many places in Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy pollution weather, and attention should be paid to the resumption of blast furnace production. Overall, the supply of crude steel is in a downward trend, and the demand side in the off-season is still relatively weak [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to continue holding the long positions of rebar initiated around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1]