黑色建材日报：供应扰动影响，纯碱震荡上涨-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating strongly [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating strongly [4] 2. Core Views - Glass has large supply - demand contradictions, high inventory, and weak long - term demand due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the downturn in the real estate industry [1] - Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, with downstream rigid demand having resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices and de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] - Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with high production and inventory. Its price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with a significant increase in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases as needed [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions are large, inventory is high, and long - term demand is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The soda ash futures market oscillated upward yesterday. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and mainly made low - price rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions remain. Downstream rigid demand has resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to supply and cost changes [1] - Strategy: Oscillating [2] Ferromanganese - Market Analysis: The ferromanganese futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the ferromanganese market had strong wait - and - see sentiment, waiting for new steel procurement guidelines. The price in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, but production remains at a medium - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. The price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The ferrosilicon futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. The ferrosilicon market had little fluctuation, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon was priced at 5700 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed. Attention should be paid to cost changes in coal and electricity prices and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4]