全球原油库存持续累积，地缘不确定导致油价延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global crude oil market is in a state of continuous inventory accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing oil prices to continue to fluctuate. The chemical industry is expected to be volatile, and investors should approach it with a range - bound mindset [2][3]. - Different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is range - bound, some products like asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil may be strong, and most chemical products are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation of Crude Oil and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Global crude oil inventories have reached a new high for the year, and the US NGL inventory has reached a record high for the same period. The lack of short - term drivers is causing the market to continue to fluctuate [2]. - Chemicals: On Monday, chemicals slightly stabilized within a limited range. Ethylene glycol started to accumulate inventory, while pure benzene and styrene both saw inventory reductions. PX and PTA are the strongest in the chemical sector, but it is still difficult for them to outperform crude oil [3]. 3.2 Outlook for Each Product - Crude Oil: Short - term drivers are lacking, and the market will continue to oscillate. The increase in global inventory shows supply pressure, but the reduction in refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production [8]. - Asphalt: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is fluctuating. After the OPEC+ increase in production and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the price has broken through an important support level, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is in a weak and volatile state. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and demand is still weak [9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Refined oil is strong, so low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11]. - PX: Cost changes are limited, and the market is affected by sentiment and funds. The fundamentals are generally stable, with strong supply and demand, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - PTA: Driven by the upstream, the center of gravity has shifted upward. There is no unexpected reduction in supply, and it is expected to run slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - Pure Benzene: The port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it is running weakly. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is at a low level in recent years, and the upward drive is currently insufficient [14][15]. - Styrene: There is still a risk of over - inventory, and it is oscillating weakly. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the pressure on the cost side of pure benzene is increasing [16]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand and cost support are in a tug - of - war. It will maintain a low - level range - bound operation in the short term, with significant upward pressure [17][18]. - Short - Fiber: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the upstream market and the processing fee may be compressed [21][22]. - Bottle Chip: It is passively following the rise of raw materials. The processing fee has a stronger support at the bottom [23][24]. - Methanol: High inventory is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is oscillating and consolidating [25]. - Urea: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions are cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - Plastic (LLDPE): Downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. It is oscillating [27]. - PP: Production is still at a high level, and it is oscillating [28]. - PL: Inventory needs time to be digested, and it is oscillating [29]. - PVC: Weak fundamentals are suppressing the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the cost can support the market [31]. - Caustic Soda: It has a low valuation and weak expectations. It is oscillating, and the price may be stable [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - Period Spreads: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.25 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 18 with a change of 18 [34]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 28, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - Inter - Variety Spreads: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 177 with a change of 49 [37]. 3.4 Index Information - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 10, 2025, shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all have positive growth rates [278]. - Sector Index: The energy index on November 10, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.39%, a 1 - month increase of 1.85%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.45% [279].