新能源及有色金属日报：铜价高位震荡抑制下游采购意愿-20251111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Short put 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price remained relatively volatile during the week, supported by mine - end disturbances but with lackluster demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile range between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton, and physical enterprises can arrange buy or sell hedging according to this range [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On November 10, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 86,110 yuan/ton and closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, a 0.63% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 86,790 yuan/ton and closed at 86,500 yuan/ton, a 0.20% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot price was quoted at 86,360 - 86,710 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 55 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase from the previous day. The market trading activity increased, and the mainstream transactions this week are expected to center around par [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - The US announced a one - year suspension of the Section 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and China suspended the special port dues on US ships and the countermeasures against 5 US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. for one year [3] - After a 40 - day government shutdown, the US Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary appropriation bill to end the shutdown. The bill still needs a final vote in the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the government shutdown may end before this weekend [3] 3.1.4 Mine End - Solaris Resources' pre - feasibility study shows that the after - tax net present value of its Warintza copper - gold project in Ecuador could reach $4.6 billion. The after - tax internal rate of return is 26%, and the after - tax payback period is 2.6 years. The initial capital is expected to be $3.73 billion. The project plans to produce 240,000 tons of copper equivalent per year over a 22 - year mine life [4] 3.1.5 Smelting and Import - In the past week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline. The bill of lading weekly average price was $46.8/ton, a $5.8 decrease from the previous week; the warehouse receipt average price was $35/ton, a $1.8 decrease. The import loss was about 600 yuan/ton as of November 7. The import window may open briefly in mid - to - late November, but the subsequent upside of the Yangshan copper premium is limited [5] 3.1.6 Consumption - From January to October, in Baotou City, the first - industry electricity consumption was 187 million kWh, a 3.89% year - on - year decrease; the second - industry electricity consumption was 87.273 billion kWh, a 1.3% increase. The third - industry and residential electricity consumption also increased [6] - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month decrease. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 63.84%. The expected production in November is 194,600 tons, a 2.91% increase [6][7] 3.1.7 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,425 tons to 136,275 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 395 tons to 43,789 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.959 million tons, a 74,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [7] 3.2 Copper Price and Basis Data | Project | 2025 - 11 - 11 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | 2025 - 11 - 04 | 2025 - 10 - 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount)
   - SMM: 1 Copper | 55 | 40 | - 5 | 20 | | - Premium Copper | 115 | 90 | 60 | 80 | | - Flat - water Copper | 10 | 15 | - 30 | - 5 | | - Wet - process Copper | - 50 | - 70 | - 100 | - 75 | | - Yangshan Premium (USD/ton) | 43 | 44 | 51 | 53 | | - LME (0 - 3) | - 18 | - 31 | - 14 | - 37 | | Inventory
   - LME (tons) | 136275 | 135900 | 133600 | 139200 | | - SHFE (tons) | 115035 | | 116140 | | | - COMEX (tons) | 335086 | 332410 | 322649 | 302613 | | Warehouse Receipts
   - SHFE Warehouse Receipts (tons) | 43789 | 43394 | 40066 | 29964 | | - LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | 8.30% | 7.96% | 9.95% | 5.95% | | - CU2602 - CU2511 (Contango - Near Month) | 50 | 40 | 70 | 40 | | - CU12 - CU11 (Main - Near Month) | 0 | 20 | 40 | 10 | | Arbitrage
   - CU12/AL12 | 3.98 | 3.97 | 4.04 | 4.09 | | - CU12/ZN12 | 3.81 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.86 | | - Import Profit (yuan/ton) | - 585 | - 496 | - 872 | - 1012 | [27][28][29]