农产品日报：棉糖延续震荡，纸浆走势偏强-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has short - term supply pressure and weak demand, but in the long - term, the supply - demand situation is not overly loose and the price is expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2][3] - The sugar market is in a bearish cycle in the 25/26 season with a surplus pattern. The domestic sugar price may be supported in the short - term but is not optimistic in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has a loose supply situation, weak demand, and although the price is currently strong due to macro - sentiment, the fundamental improvement is limited and the upside space may be restricted [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,580 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,671 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,844 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - From October 31 to November 6, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 230,400 tons, with 82.6% of lint meeting ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the macro - sentiment has improved, but the supply pressure is being released and the consumption is weak, so the short - term rebound space of the outer market is limited [2] - Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded, but the overall new cotton is still expected to increase in production and the demand is insufficient [2] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. In the short - term, there is a possibility of a price correction, while in the long - term, the cotton price can be viewed optimistically after seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,475 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,760 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] - The Indian government has allowed 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season and cancelled the 50% export tariff on molasses [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar export is strong and the Indian new - season production is expected to rebound, suppressing market confidence. The global sugar market may be in a bearish cycle in the 25/26 season [5] - Domestically, the new - season sugar production is expected to increase, but the price has fallen to the cost line and the syrup control policy provides short - term support [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Before the Spring Festival, view the sugar price as oscillating. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose and the price may hit new lows [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,085 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was rising, with some prices of imported softwood pulp and hardwood pulp increasing by 20 - 100 yuan/ton and 20 - 80 yuan/ton respectively [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level, and the domestic pulp import increased again in September with high port inventory [6] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is the core factor suppressing the pulp price. The terminal demand is insufficient and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [6] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The current pulp price is strong due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental improvement is limited, and attention should be paid to the demand in the fourth quarter [7]