石油沥青日报：盘面延续弱势，等待下方支撑-20251111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on the sidelines in the short term; No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Core View - The asphalt market's weakness has not yet turned around, but the spot and futures prices have dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the release of winter storage demand to provide some downside support, and caution is advised [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 10, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3036 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 1.17% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 208,668 lots, a decrease of 5,598 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 259,174 lots, a decrease of 50,273 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 3,156 - 3,750 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 2,950 - 3,620 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,200 - 3,400 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton in East China. The asphalt spot price in the Northwest market was relatively stable yesterday, while prices in other regions declined to varying degrees [1] - The current terminal demand for asphalt is weak, and demand in the North will further decline in winter. Refineries with quotas have relatively good profit margins, and recently, low - price forward contract prices have been intensively released in North China and Shandong, suppressing the spot market. The downstream's willingness to buy at the bottom is still poor [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on the sidelines in the short term; No suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Figures - The report includes figures on asphalt spot prices in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]